luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 14, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Devils, Jan 14, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Kraken 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (OT): the Devils won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final (OT)

Seattle Kraken 2
New Jersey Devils 3

January 14, 2026 · Prudential Center

Luck index +50 Devils lucky · −50 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Devils win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 6 NJD 3
  2. 2 SEA 4 NJD 1
  3. 3 SEA 2 NJD 0
  4. 4 SEA 3 NJD 2
  5. 5 SEA 1 NJD 0
  6. 6 SEA 3 NJD 4
  7. 7 SEA 2 NJD 3
  8. 8 SEA 1 NJD 2
  9. 9 SEA 1 NJD 4
  10. 10 SEA 2 NJD 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Kraken win 50% of them, Devils 50%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+16.2%
Kraken by 210.0%
Kraken by 123.3%
Devils by 124.8%
Devils by 29.9%
Devils by 3+15.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3122.17−0.17
Devils3522.16−0.16

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:07 High sticking on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NJD
P1 10:05 Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 16:50 Holding on the Kraken (Ben Meyers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NJD
P2 14:59 Roughing on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:06 Cody Glass scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% NJD –
2 P1 11:05 Adam Larsson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% SEA –
3 P2 16:50 Holding on the Kraken (Ben Meyers): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NJD –
4 P2 16:27 Nico Hischier scored on a slap shot from 35 feetShooting · 10% chance +17% NJD –
5 P2 14:54 Jared McCann scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 20% chance +16% SEA –
6 P3 19:21 Jared McCann missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 21% chance +5% NJD –
7 P3 4:57 Dawson Mercer missed the net with a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +4% SEA –
8 OT The Devils won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 49% · Devils 51%

Final margin
Devils by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 50% · Devils 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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