luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 17, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blue Jackets at Penguins, Jan 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blue Jackets beat the Penguins 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Blue Jackets won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.

Final (SO)

Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 3

January 17, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +66 Blue Jackets very lucky · −66 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 3, Penguins win 7.

  1. 1 CBJ 3 PIT 0
  2. 2 CBJ 4 PIT 2
  3. 3 CBJ 4 PIT 3
  4. 4 CBJ 2 PIT 3
  5. 5 CBJ 5 PIT 6
  6. 6 CBJ 0 PIT 2
  7. 7 CBJ 2 PIT 5
  8. 8 CBJ 2 PIT 5
  9. 9 CBJ 1 PIT 5
  10. 10 CBJ 0 PIT 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Blue Jackets win 34% of them, Penguins 66%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blue Jackets by 3+9.8%
Blue Jackets by 26.5%
Blue Jackets by 117.6%
Penguins by 118.5%
Penguins by 211.1%
Penguins by 3+36.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 goals to the Blue Jackets: the final margin was Blue Jackets by 1, without the luck Penguins by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blue Jackets3632.42+0.58
Penguins4734.12−1.12

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:46 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Zachary Aston-Reese): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 17:57 Interference on the Blue Jackets (Ivan Provorov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 5:45 High sticking on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CBJ
P2 0:39 Hooking on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CBJ
P3 7:49 Holding on the Blue Jackets (Adam Fantilli): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Blue Jackets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:18 Zachary Aston-Reese scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% CBJ –
2 P1 10:01 Connor Clifton scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% PIT –
3 P1 2:08 Rickard Rakell scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 16% chance +15% PIT –
4 P2 12:28 Kirill Marchenko scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +19% CBJ –
5 P2 2:22 Danton Heinen scored on a tip from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance +22% CBJ –
6 P3 3:03 Tommy Novak’s slap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance +12% CBJ –
7 P3 1:01 Sidney Crosby scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +40% PIT –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Blue Jackets won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% CBJ –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blue Jackets 25% · Penguins 75%

Final margin
Blue Jackets by 1
Luck in goals
2.3 for the Blue Jackets
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Blue Jackets 34% · Penguins 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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