luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Bruins, Jan 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bruins beat the Red Wings 3–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 9:01 left): Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 35 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Bruins.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 0
Boston Bruins 3

January 13, 2026 · TD Garden

Luck index +33 Bruins lucky · −33 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 3, Bruins win 7.

  1. 1 DET 4 BOS 1
  2. 2 DET 3 BOS 2
  3. 3 DET 5 BOS 4
  4. 4 DET 1 BOS 2
  5. 5 DET 1 BOS 2
  6. 6 DET 0 BOS 2
  7. 7 DET 1 BOS 4
  8. 8 DET 2 BOS 5
  9. 9 DET 2 BOS 6
  10. 10 DET 1 BOS 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Red Wings win 33% of them, Bruins 67%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+9.7%
Red Wings by 27.1%
Red Wings by 116.5%
Bruins by 119.2%
Bruins by 211.8%
Bruins by 3+35.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Bruins by 3, without the luck Bruins by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings4402.69−2.69
Bruins5323.62−1.62

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:01 Tripping on the Bruins (Elias Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 17:25 Interference on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P3 8:11 Holding on the Red Wings (Axel Sandin-Pellikka): 2 minutes on the power play +2% BOS
P3 7:21 Holding on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DET

When it happened

Bruins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Bruins were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:55 Andrew Copp’s backhand shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +3% BOS –
2 P1 8:01 Tripping on the Bruins (Elias Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% DET –
3 P1 4:13 Viktor Arvidsson’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% DET –
4 P2 17:25 Interference on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BOS –
5 P2 13:43 Michael Rasmussen’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +4% BOS –
6 P2 11:29 Morgan Geekie’s wrist shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +3% DET –
7 P2 9:01 Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance +20% BOS –
8 P3 16:11 Fraser Minten scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance +12% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 14% · Bruins 86%

Final margin
Bruins by 3
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Bruins by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 33% · Bruins 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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