luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 12, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Flyers, Jan 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lightning beat the Flyers 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 19:27 left): Jake Guentzel scored on a deflected shot from 7 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Philadelphia Flyers 1

January 12, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +26 Lightning lucky · −26 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 7, Flyers win 3.

  1. 1 TBL 10 PHI 3
  2. 2 TBL 5 PHI 0
  3. 3 TBL 6 PHI 2
  4. 4 TBL 4 PHI 1
  5. 5 TBL 6 PHI 3
  6. 6 TBL 5 PHI 3
  7. 7 TBL 4 PHI 3
  8. 8 TBL 2 PHI 3
  9. 9 TBL 2 PHI 3
  10. 10 TBL 1 PHI 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Lightning win 74% of them, Flyers 26%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+49.5%
Lightning by 210.8%
Lightning by 113.8%
Flyers by 115.4%
Flyers by 24.9%
Flyers by 3+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Lightning by 4, without the luck Lightning by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning3644.10−0.10
Flyers3812.81−1.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 15:54 Tripping on the Flyers (Rodrigo Abols): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P2 12:21 Holding on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 6:59 Interference on the Lightning (Brandon Hagel): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 1:10 Interference on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TBL
P3 16:14 Boarding on the Flyers (Rodrigo Abols): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL
P3 11:20 Roughing on the Flyers (Garnet Hathaway): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TBL

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:50 Pontus Holmberg scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% TBL –
2 P1 5:42 Brayden Point’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 40% chance +6% PHI –
3 P1 5:41 Brayden Point’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +4% PHI –
4 P2 19:27 Jake Guentzel scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% TBL –
5 P2 16:54 Rodrigo Abols’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +4% TBL –
6 P2 15:31 Brayden Point scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +8% TBL –
7 P2 14:20 Christian Dvorak scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance +9% PHI –
8 P2 0:31 Brandon Hagel scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance +7% TBL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 88% · Flyers 12%

Final margin
Lightning by 4
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Lightning by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 74% · Flyers 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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