luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 17, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Flyers, Jan 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Flyers 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:34 left): Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 51 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

New York Rangers 6
Philadelphia Flyers 3

January 17, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +34 Rangers lucky · −34 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 7, Flyers win 3.

  1. 1 NYR 7 PHI 0
  2. 2 NYR 6 PHI 2
  3. 3 NYR 6 PHI 3
  4. 4 NYR 3 PHI 0
  5. 5 NYR 5 PHI 3
  6. 6 NYR 3 PHI 2
  7. 7 NYR 5 PHI 4
  8. 8 NYR 3 PHI 4
  9. 9 NYR 4 PHI 6
  10. 10 NYR 0 PHI 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Rangers win 66% of them, Flyers 34%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+37.4%
Rangers by 210.6%
Rangers by 117.9%
Flyers by 116.9%
Flyers by 27.3%
Flyers by 3+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 3, without the luck Rangers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers4864.03+1.97
Flyers4332.97+0.03

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:58 Roughing on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 19:16 Tripping on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P2 16:16 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Samuel Ersson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P2 4:38 Tripping on the Flyers (Nikita Grebenkin): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NYR

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:29 Mika Zibanejad missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 19% chance +3% PHI –
2 P1 13:38 Travis Konecny scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% PHI –
3 P1 12:55 Artemi Panarin scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% NYR –
4 P1 12:34 Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 51 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% NYR –
5 P1 11:35 Brennan Othmann scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% NYR –
6 P2 14:54 Vincent Trocheck’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +3% PHI –
7 P2 14:22 Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance +9% NYR –
8 P2 11:35 Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance +3% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 81% · Flyers 19%

Final margin
Rangers by 3
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 66% · Flyers 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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