2025-26 regular season · January 15, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Stars at Mammoth, Jan 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Stars 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
The biggest swing (P3, 15:57 left): John Marino scored on a snap shot from 58 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
Final
 Dallas Stars | 1 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Mammoth lucky · −41 Stars
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stars win 4, Mammoth win 6.
- 1 DAL 4 UTA 1
- 2 DAL 5 UTA 3
- 3 DAL 4 UTA 3
- 4 DAL 2 UTA 1
- 5 DAL 4 UTA 5
- 6 DAL 0 UTA 1
- 7 DAL 1 UTA 2
- 8 DAL 2 UTA 4
- 9 DAL 0 UTA 3
- 10 DAL 1 UTA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stars win 41% of them, Mammoth 59%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stars by 3+ | 11.9% |
| Stars by 2 | 8.6% |
| Stars by 1 | 20.3% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 23.0% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 11.7% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 24.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stars | 33 | 1 | 2.25 | −1.25 |
 Mammoth | 43 | 2 | 2.75 | −0.75 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:27 | Slashing on the Stars (Roope Hintz): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 19:05 | Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P3 18:21 | Hooking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P3 14:17 | Tripping on the Stars (Matt Duchene): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:10 | Clayton Keller’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance | +5% DAL | – |
| 2 | P2 19:05 | Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DAL | – |
| 3 | P2 0:07 | Nick Schmaltz scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance | +23% UTA | – |
| 4 | P3 18:21 | Hooking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% DAL | – |
| 5 | P3 17:59 | Wyatt Johnston’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +5% UTA | – |
| 6 | P3 17:56 | Mikko Rantanen scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 21% chance | +20% DAL | – |
| 7 | P3 15:57 | John Marino scored on a snap shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance | +27% UTA | – |
| 8 | P3 14:17 | Tripping on the Stars (Matt Duchene): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stars 41% · Mammoth 59%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Stars 41% · Mammoth 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 15, 2025-26
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