luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Hurricanes, Jan 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Panthers 9–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Hurricanes win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:50 left): Mark Jankowski scored on a backhand shot from 6 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Florida Panthers 1
Carolina Hurricanes 9

January 16, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +17 Hurricanes about even · −17 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Hurricanes win 8.

  1. 1 FLA 3 CAR 1
  2. 2 FLA 2 CAR 1
  3. 3 FLA 2 CAR 3
  4. 4 FLA 1 CAR 3
  5. 5 FLA 1 CAR 4
  6. 6 FLA 2 CAR 5
  7. 7 FLA 0 CAR 4
  8. 8 FLA 2 CAR 7
  9. 9 FLA 0 CAR 5
  10. 10 FLA 2 CAR 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Panthers win 17% of them, Hurricanes 83%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+3.1%
Panthers by 22.4%
Panthers by 111.9%
Hurricanes by 112.1%
Hurricanes by 210.9%
Hurricanes by 3+59.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 8, without the luck Hurricanes by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers2711.60−0.60
Hurricanes5194.50+4.50

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 12:11 Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 4:22 Roughing on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P3 18:41 Interference on the Hurricanes (Mike Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play +2% FLA
P3 17:55 High sticking on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR
P3 16:37 Tripping on the Panthers (Sam Reinhart): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR
P3 15:41 High sticking on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P3 11:18 Interference on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P3 9:49 A Panthers goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +2% CAR
P3 9:49 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Panthers (FLA): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR
P3 9:34 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR
P3 6:09 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Mike Reilly): 2 minutes on the power play 0% FLA

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:00 Eric Robinson missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 27% chance +4% FLA –
2 P1 1:25 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a slap shot from 11 feetShooting · 23% chance +14% CAR –
3 P2 18:41 Uvis Balinskis scored on a slap shot from 35 feetShooting · 9% chance +17% FLA –
4 P2 12:11 Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% FLA –
5 P2 6:50 Mark Jankowski scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance +19% CAR –
6 P2 4:22 Roughing on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CAR –
7 P2 3:32 Alexander Nikishin scored on a slap shot from 56 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% CAR –
8 P3 15:52 Andrei Svechnikov scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 18% chance +4% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Hurricanes 100%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 8
Luck in goals
3.8 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 17% · Hurricanes 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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