Second round 2025-26 · May 12, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sabres at Canadiens, Game 4, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Sabres beat the Canadiens 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 35 points of win probability to the Sabres.
The biggest swing (P3, 15:19 left): Zach Benson scored on a backhand shot from 7 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Sabres.
Final
 Buffalo Sabres | 3 |
|---|---|
 Montreal Canadiens | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Sabres lucky · −52 Canadiens
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sabres win 5, Canadiens win 5.
- 1 BUF 5 MTL 1
- 2 BUF 5 MTL 2
- 3 BUF 3 MTL 1
- 4 BUF 5 MTL 4
- 5 BUF 5 MTL 4
- 6 BUF 5 MTL 6
- 7 BUF 6 MTL 7
- 8 BUF 1 MTL 3
- 9 BUF 3 MTL 6
- 10 BUF 1 MTL 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.3 replays ended
Sabres win 48% of them, Canadiens 52%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sabres by 3+ | 20.2% |
| Sabres by 2 | 8.9% |
| Sabres by 1 | 18.8% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 18.7% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 10.1% |
| Canadiens by 3+ | 23.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sabres | 38 | 3 | 3.28 | −0.28 |
 Canadiens | 45 | 2 | 3.53 | −1.53 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:58 | A Sabres goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +16% MTL |
| P1 8:32 | Tripping on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P1 7:54 | Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 5:03 | Roughing on the Sabres (Jason Zucker): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 0:41 | Cross checking on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 17:37 | High sticking on the Sabres (Bowen Byram): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 14:04 | High sticking double minor on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% BUF |
| P2 8:39 | Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 1:29 | High sticking double minor on the Sabres (Bowen Byram): 4 minutes on the power play | +11% MTL |
| P3 16:13 | Holding on the Canadiens (Jake Evans): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BUF |
When it happened
Canadiens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:28 | Mattias Samuelsson scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% BUF | – |
| 2 | P1 11:58 | A Sabres goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals | +16% MTL | – |
| 3 | P1 9:52 | Alex Newhook scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 22% chance | +14% MTL | – |
| 4 | P1 0:13 | Cole Caufield scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 5 | P2 14:04 | High sticking double minor on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% BUF | – |
| 6 | P2 13:00 | Tage Thompson scored on a snap shot from 77 feetShooting · 2% chance | +20% BUF | – |
| 7 | P2 1:29 | High sticking double minor on the Sabres (Bowen Byram): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +11% MTL | – |
| 8 | P3 15:19 | Zach Benson scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +25% BUF | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sabres 46% · Canadiens 54%
- Final margin
- Sabres by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Sabres
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sabres by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sabres 48% · Canadiens 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from second round, 2025-26
- Canadiens at Sabres May 18, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 36% for the winner
- Canadiens at Sabres May 14, 2026 · MTL 6–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Canadiens at Sabres May 6, 2026 · BUF 4–2 · replay 63% for the winner
- Sabres at Canadiens May 10, 2026 · MTL 6–2 · replay 64% for the winner
- Canadiens at Sabres May 8, 2026 · MTL 5–1 · replay 69% for the winner
- Sabres at Canadiens May 17, 2026 · BUF 8–3 · replay 81% for the winner
- Wild at Avalanche May 6, 2026 · COL 5–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Ducks at Golden Knights May 5, 2026 · VGK 3–1 · replay 50% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Flyers May 9, 2026 · CAR 3–2 OT · replay 52% for the winner
- Avalanche at Wild May 10, 2026 · MIN 5–1 · replay 55% for the winner
- Ducks at Golden Knights May 7, 2026 · ANA 3–1 · replay 57% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Ducks May 11, 2026 · ANA 4–3 · replay 58% for the winner