luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Second round 2025-26 · May 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Golden Knights, Game 2, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Golden Knights 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The biggest swing (P2, 8:37 left): Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 8 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 3
Vegas Golden Knights 1

May 7, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena

Luck index +43 Ducks lucky · −43 Golden Knights

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 6, Golden Knights win 4.

  1. 1 ANA 7 VGK 3
  2. 2 ANA 4 VGK 1
  3. 3 ANA 4 VGK 2
  4. 4 ANA 3 VGK 1
  5. 5 ANA 2 VGK 1
  6. 6 ANA 4 VGK 3
  7. 7 ANA 2 VGK 3
  8. 8 ANA 1 VGK 2
  9. 9 ANA 3 VGK 5
  10. 10 ANA 2 VGK 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 57% of them, Golden Knights 43%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+24.5%
Ducks by 210.7%
Ducks by 121.5%
Golden Knights by 121.0%
Golden Knights by 28.8%
Golden Knights by 3+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 2, without the luck Ducks by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks4022.93−0.93
Golden Knights3212.40−1.40

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:46 High sticking on the Golden Knights (Tomas Hertl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 14:50 Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Mitch Marner): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 14:27 High sticking double minor on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 4 minutes on the power play +8% ANA
P1 9:54 Interference goalkeeper on the Ducks (Tim Washe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 17:26 High sticking on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 2:00 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 8:23 Tripping on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play +2% VGK
P3 0:15 High sticking on the Ducks (Ross Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play 0% VGK

When it happened

Golden Knights’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Golden Knights were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:11 Troy Terry’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +4% VGK –
2 P1 16:10 Chris Kreider’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +4% VGK –
3 P1 14:27 High sticking double minor on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% ANA –
4 P2 17:26 High sticking on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VGK –
5 P2 8:37 Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +19% ANA –
6 P2 2:00 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% ANA –
7 P3 17:41 William Karlsson’s snap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +5% ANA –
8 P3 13:24 Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 75% · Golden Knights 25%

Final margin
Ducks by 2
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 57% · Golden Knights 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All second round 2025-26 games · Ducks · Golden Knights

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