luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Second round 2025-26 · May 9, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Golden Knights at Ducks, Game 3, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Golden Knights beat the Ducks 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:47 left): Brayden McNabb scored on a snap shot from 31 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

Final

Vegas Golden Knights 6
Anaheim Ducks 2

May 9, 2026 · Honda Center

Luck index +26 Golden Knights lucky · −26 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 7, Ducks win 3.

  1. 1 VGK 7 ANA 1
  2. 2 VGK 6 ANA 2
  3. 3 VGK 6 ANA 2
  4. 4 VGK 4 ANA 1
  5. 5 VGK 4 ANA 2
  6. 6 VGK 4 ANA 2
  7. 7 VGK 2 ANA 1
  8. 8 VGK 3 ANA 4
  9. 9 VGK 4 ANA 5
  10. 10 VGK 3 ANA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Golden Knights win 74% of them, Ducks 26%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Golden Knights by 3+44.2%
Golden Knights by 211.7%
Golden Knights by 117.7%
Ducks by 116.5%
Ducks by 24.4%
Ducks by 3+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Golden Knights: the final margin was Golden Knights by 4, without the luck Golden Knights by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Golden Knights4153.88+1.12
Ducks4822.63−0.63

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:27 Cross checking on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 9:17 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 1:31 Elbowing on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK
P2 1:41 Cross checking on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play 0% VGK
P2 0:06 Delaying game illegal play by goalie on the Ducks (Ville Husso): 2 minutes on the power play 0% VGK

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:54 Shea Theodore scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% VGK –
2 P1 16:27 Cross checking on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
3 P1 9:18 Ross Johnston’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% VGK –
4 P1 9:17 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
5 P1 7:47 Brayden McNabb scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% VGK –
6 P1 1:31 Elbowing on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% VGK –
7 P1 0:05 Mitch Marner scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance +8% VGK –
8 P2 10:41 Mitch Marner scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +3% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 88% · Ducks 12%

Final margin
Golden Knights by 4
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Golden Knights
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Golden Knights 74% · Ducks 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All second round 2025-26 games · Golden Knights · Ducks

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