2026-27 season · in progress
Montreal Canadiens, 2026-27: game by game
The Canadiens are 1–0–0 (2 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 1.6 points. Luck added 0.4: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 1–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Canadiens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | 44% | +56 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Canadiens win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | at Penguins |  Penguins by 0.3 | 45% |
| Week 2 · Oct 6 | vs Hurricanes |  Hurricanes by 0.2 | 47% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | vs Predators |  Canadiens by 0.6 | 61% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | vs Red Wings | Canadiens by 0.4 | 56% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | vs Sabres | Canadiens by 0.2 | 54% |
| Week 3 · Oct 14 | at Capitals |  Capitals by 0.3 | 45% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | vs Sabres | Canadiens by 0.2 | 54% |
| Week 4 · Oct 20 | vs Sharks | Canadiens by 0.7 | 62% |
| Week 4 · Oct 23 | at Blackhawks | Canadiens by 0.6 | 59% |
| Week 4 · Oct 25 | at Jets |  Jets by 0.1 | 48% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Canadiens’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +0.7 |
| Goaltending | +0.6 |
| Empty-net goals | −1.7 |