2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Canadiens, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Canadiens 6–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Canadiens had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The biggest swing (P2, 6:36 left): Mark Jankowski scored on a backhand shot from 11 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 6 |
|---|---|
 Montreal Canadiens | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Hurricanes lucky · −30 Canadiens
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Canadiens win 3.
- 1 CAR 9 MTL 4
- 2 CAR 5 MTL 1
- 3 CAR 4 MTL 1
- 4 CAR 3 MTL 1
- 5 CAR 4 MTL 2
- 6 CAR 2 MTL 1
- 7 CAR 2 MTL 1
- 8 CAR 1 MTL 2
- 9 CAR 1 MTL 2
- 10 CAR 2 MTL 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.2, 53% to win. The Hurricanes won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 52.8% |
| Canadiens win | 47.2% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 2 to Canadiens by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Canadiens by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Canadiens by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 12.4% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 3 | 10.8% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hurricanes win 70% of them, Canadiens 30%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 39.1% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 12.5% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 18.9% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 18.8% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 5.8% |
| Canadiens by 3+ | 4.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 47 | 5 | 3.21 | +1.79 |
 Canadiens | 29 | 4 | 1.83 | +2.17 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:19 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 5:10 | Roughing on the Canadiens (Cole Caufield): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 1:05 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 0:18 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Logan Stankoven): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 16:46 | Interference on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 15:19 | Holding on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
| P2 14:44 | Interference goalkeeper on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 13:09 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 0:43 | Roughing on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
| P3 13:36 | Roughing on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P3 12:42 | Interference goalkeeper on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
When it happened
Canadiens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:35 | Taylor Hall scored on a deflected shot from 2 feetShooting · 26% chance | +12% CAR | – |
| 2 | P1 16:37 | Zachary Bolduc scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 6% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 3 | P1 15:33 | Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 39 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 4 | P1 10:38 | Eric Robinson scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 5 | P1 7:06 | Zachary Bolduc scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 19% chance | +14% MTL | – |
| 6 | P2 16:04 | Sebastian Aho scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% CAR | – |
| 7 | P2 6:36 | Mark Jankowski scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance | +21% CAR | – |
| 8 | P3 7:39 | Taylor Hall scored on a backhand shot from 15 feetShooting · 9% chance | +12% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 93% · Canadiens 7%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 70% · Canadiens 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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