2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Canadiens, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Red Wings 1–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The biggest swing (SO): the Canadiens won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
Final (SO)
 Detroit Red Wings | 0 |
|---|---|
 Montreal Canadiens | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Canadiens lucky · −49 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 5, Canadiens win 5.
- 1 DET 5 MTL 1
- 2 DET 7 MTL 4
- 3 DET 3 MTL 1
- 4 DET 3 MTL 2
- 5 DET 4 MTL 3
- 6 DET 5 MTL 6
- 7 DET 2 MTL 3
- 8 DET 3 MTL 5
- 9 DET 2 MTL 5
- 10 DET 3 MTL 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Canadiens by 0.4, 57% to win. The Canadiens won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.6 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Red Wings win | 43.5% |
| Canadiens win | 56.5% |
| Middle 50%: Red Wings by 1 to Canadiens by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Red Wings by 4 to Canadiens by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Red Wings by 4 to Canadiens by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 1 | 21.9% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 19.0% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 3 | 13.8% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 2 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 9.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Red Wings win 49% of them, Canadiens 51%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 19.0% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.0% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 20.0% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 21.3% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 8.9% |
| Canadiens by 3+ | 20.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 34 | 0 | 2.83 | −2.83 |
 Canadiens | 45 | 0 | 3.00 | −3.00 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:40 | Interference on the Red Wings (Lucas Raymond): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 6:59 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Kirby Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 5:25 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Jake Evans): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 15:04 | Holding the stick on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 10:11 | Holding on the Red Wings (Anton Johansson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 7:22 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 2:20 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% DET |
| P3 5:55 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power play | +9% MTL |
| OT 2:23 | A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side) | +50% MTL |
When it happened
Canadiens’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 10:11 | Holding on the Red Wings (Anton Johansson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MTL | – |
| 2 | P2 7:22 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MTL | – |
| 3 | P2 2:20 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 0:54 | Viktor Arvidsson missed the net with a tip from 5 feetShooting · 20% chance | +5% MTL | – |
| 5 | P3 13:13 | Alex DeBrincat’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +5% MTL | – |
| 6 | P3 5:55 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +9% MTL | – |
| 7 | SO | The Canadiens won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% MTL | – |
| 8 | OT 2:23 | A Red Wings goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +50% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 48% · Canadiens 52%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canadiens by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 49% · Canadiens 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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