2026-27 regular season · October 27, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Ducks, Oct 27, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canucks beat the Ducks 6–5, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Ducks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Canucks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canucks.
Final (OT)
 Vancouver Canucks | 6 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Canucks lucky · −38 Ducks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 6, Ducks win 4.
- 1 VAN 6 ANA 1
- 2 VAN 4 ANA 0
- 3 VAN 4 ANA 1
- 4 VAN 6 ANA 4
- 5 VAN 3 ANA 2
- 6 VAN 6 ANA 5
- 7 VAN 2 ANA 3
- 8 VAN 2 ANA 3
- 9 VAN 1 ANA 3
- 10 VAN 3 ANA 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Ducks by 0.9, 64% to win. The Canucks won by 1, a result we gave 36%. The final margin was 1.9 goals from ours; 49% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Canucks win | 35.6% |
| Ducks win | 64.5% |
| Middle 50%: Canucks by 1 to Ducks by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Canucks by 3 to Ducks by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Canucks by 4 to Ducks by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Canucks by 1 | 16.8% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 16.5% |
| Exactly Ducks by 2 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Ducks by 4 | 8.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 27, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canucks win 62% of them, Ducks 38%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 31.1% |
| Canucks by 2 | 11.0% |
| Canucks by 1 | 19.5% |
| Ducks by 1 | 20.3% |
| Ducks by 2 | 7.2% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 43 | 5 | 3.70 | +1.30 |
 Ducks | 30 | 5 | 2.37 | +2.63 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 1:01 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Travis Mitchell): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P2 17:59 | Roughing on the Ducks (Tyson Hinds): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P2 8:36 | Slashing on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P2 4:44 | Cross checking on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P3 15:37 | Cross checking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% VAN |
| P3 11:35 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Travis Mitchell): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% VAN |
| P3 11:20 | High sticking on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% ANA |
| OT 2:11 | High sticking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% VAN |
| OT 0:27 | Interference goalkeeper on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% VAN |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 4:08 | A.J. Greer scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 3% chance | +17% ANA | – |
| 2 | P2 13:24 | Liam Ohgren scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 9% chance | +18% VAN | – |
| 3 | P2 12:54 | Jeff Malott scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance | +18% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 4:16 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance | +12% ANA | – |
| 5 | P3 1:57 | Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored on a snap shot from 51 feetShooting · 3% chance | +42% VAN | – |
| 6 | OT | The game turned hereThe Canucks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +51% VAN | – |
| 7 | OT 2:11 | High sticking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% VAN | – |
| 8 | OT 0:27 | Interference goalkeeper on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% VAN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 61% · Ducks 39%
- Final margin
- Canucks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Canucks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canucks by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 62% · Ducks 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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