2026-27 regular season · October 30, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Panthers, Oct 30, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Jets 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 1:45 left): Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Panthers lucky · −30 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 3, Panthers win 7.
- 1 WPG 4 FLA 1
- 2 WPG 4 FLA 3
- 3 WPG 4 FLA 3
- 4 WPG 3 FLA 4
- 5 WPG 2 FLA 3
- 6 WPG 1 FLA 3
- 7 WPG 0 FLA 3
- 8 WPG 1 FLA 4
- 9 WPG 3 FLA 7
- 10 WPG 1 FLA 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Panthers by 0.3, 56% to win. The Panthers won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.7 goals from ours; 26% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jets win | 44.4% |
| Panthers win | 55.6% |
| Middle 50%: Jets by 2 to Panthers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Jets by 4 to Panthers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Jets by 4 to Panthers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 21.8% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 19.2% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 13.5% |
| Exactly Panthers by 2 | 10.5% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 9.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Fri, Oct 30, 12:53 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Jets win 30% of them, Panthers 70%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Jets by 2 | 5.5% |
| Jets by 1 | 17.7% |
| Panthers by 1 | 18.3% |
| Panthers by 2 | 11.5% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 40.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 32 | 2 | 2.15 | −0.15 |
 Panthers | 47 | 4 | 3.83 | +0.17 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:06 | Holding on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 2:02 | Interference on the Jets (Viggo Björck): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 12:03 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 4 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P2 6:57 | High sticking on the Panthers (Garnet Hathaway): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 4:44 | Tripping on the Jets (Morgan Barron): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 1:24 | Interference on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% FLA |
| P3 10:25 | Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P3 0:11 | Tripping on the Jets (Haydn Fleury): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 1:45 | Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance | +16% FLA | – |
| 2 | P2 17:22 | Anton Lundell scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 4% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 3 | P2 12:03 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 4 | P2 10:09 | Kyle Connor scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 25% chance | +11% WPG | – |
| 5 | P2 4:36 | Seth Jones scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 15% chance | +13% FLA | – |
| 6 | P3 11:14 | Morgan Barron scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 10:25 | Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% FLA | – |
| 8 | P3 6:27 | Anton Lundell scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 31% chance | +7% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 5% · Panthers 95%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 30% · Panthers 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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