2026-27 regular season · October 28, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Oilers, Oct 28, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Flames 4–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 12:14 left): Mathieu Joseph scored on a snap shot from 16 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Calgary Flames | 0 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Oilers lucky · −35 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 3, Oilers win 7.
- 1 CGY 5 EDM 2
- 2 CGY 4 EDM 3
- 3 CGY 3 EDM 2
- 4 CGY 1 EDM 2
- 5 CGY 1 EDM 2
- 6 CGY 2 EDM 4
- 7 CGY 1 EDM 4
- 8 CGY 2 EDM 5
- 9 CGY 1 EDM 5
- 10 CGY 1 EDM 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Oilers by 1.0, 67% to win. The Oilers won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 23% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flames win | 33.4% |
| Oilers win | 66.6% |
| Middle 50%: Flames by 1 to Oilers by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Flames by 3 to Oilers by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Flames by 4 to Oilers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 17.2% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 16.1% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 12.1% |
| Exactly Oilers by 4 | 8.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 28, 6:49 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Flames win 35% of them, Oilers 65%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 8.5% |
| Flames by 2 | 6.7% |
| Flames by 1 | 19.6% |
| Oilers by 1 | 20.4% |
| Oilers by 2 | 12.5% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 32.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 41 | 0 | 2.11 | −2.11 |
 Oilers | 50 | 4 | 3.27 | +0.73 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:51 | Interference on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 0:12 | Interference goalkeeper on the Oilers (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P3 19:21 | Tripping on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:14 | Mathieu Joseph scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 3:51 | Interference on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 0:12 | Interference goalkeeper on the Oilers (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 15:08 | Mattias Ekholm scored on a snap shot from 58 feetShooting · 1% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 13:54 | Matvei Gridin missed the net with a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance | +2% EDM | – |
| 6 | P2 7:40 | Mikael Backlund’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +2% EDM | – |
| 7 | P3 19:21 | Tripping on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 19:05 | Kasperi Kapanen scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 26% chance | +4% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 16% · Oilers 84%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 35% · Oilers 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
- Red Wings at Oilers Oct 26, 2026 · DET 4–3 SO · replay 41% for the winner
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- Kraken at Flames Oct 30, 2026 · CGY 6–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Sabres at Ducks Oct 29, 2026 · BUF 7–6 · replay 51% for the winner
- Kings at Blackhawks Oct 27, 2026 · CHI 2–1 · replay 52% for the winner
- Oilers at Islanders Oct 31, 2026 · EDM 4–0 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kings at Rangers Oct 26, 2026 · LAK 6–3 · replay 55% for the winner
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- Canucks at Sharks Oct 29, 2026 · SJS 3–2 · replay 59% for the winner
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