2026-27 regular season · October 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Sharks, Oct 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Sharks 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 14:56 left): Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 23 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 5 |
|---|---|
 San Jose Sharks | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Senators about even · −21 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 8, Sharks win 2.
- 1 OTT 8 SJS 0
- 2 OTT 6 SJS 1
- 3 OTT 5 SJS 1
- 4 OTT 5 SJS 2
- 5 OTT 4 SJS 1
- 6 OTT 4 SJS 1
- 7 OTT 3 SJS 1
- 8 OTT 6 SJS 5
- 9 OTT 5 SJS 6
- 10 OTT 6 SJS 8
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.4, 57% to win. The Senators won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.6 goals from ours; 9% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 57.5% |
| Sharks win | 42.5% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Sharks by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Sharks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Sharks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 21.5% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 19.2% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 13.9% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 11.5% |
| Exactly Sharks by 3 | 9.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 31, 11:57 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Senators win 79% of them, Sharks 21%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 54.3% |
| Senators by 2 | 11.6% |
| Senators by 1 | 13.1% |
| Sharks by 1 | 13.6% |
| Sharks by 2 | 4.2% |
| Sharks by 3+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 59 | 4 | 4.39 | −0.39 |
 Sharks | 32 | 1 | 1.92 | −0.92 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 8:22 | Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SJS |
| P2 3:20 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
| P3 16:14 | Hooking on the Sharks (Sam Dickinson): 4 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
| P3 9:36 | Hooking on the Senators (Michael Amadio): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
| P3 7:21 | High sticking on the Sharks (Barclay Goodrow): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% OTT |
When it happened
Sharks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 6:35 | Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 4% chance | +17% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 3:54 | Michael Misa scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 30% chance | +13% SJS | – |
| 3 | P1 0:33 | Dylan Cozens’s slap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance | +5% SJS | – |
| 4 | P1 0:02 | Dylan Cozens missed the net with a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 19% chance | +4% SJS | – |
| 5 | P2 18:29 | Fabian Zetterlund’s tip from 8 feet was savedShooting · 8% chanceFabian Zetterlund’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance | +7% SJS | – |
| 6 | P2 14:56 | Drake Batherson scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance | +18% OTT | – |
| 7 | P2 9:06 | Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% OTT | – |
| 8 | P2 7:43 | Ridly Greig scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance | +7% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 97% · Sharks 3%
- Final margin
- Senators by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 3.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 79% · Sharks 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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