2026-27 regular season · October 27, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Wild at Mammoth, Oct 27, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Wild beat the Mammoth 3–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 4:56 left): Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 34 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Wild.
Final
 Minnesota Wild | 3 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Wild lucky · −39 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wild win 6, Mammoth win 4.
- 1 MIN 5 UTA 0
- 2 MIN 5 UTA 2
- 3 MIN 4 UTA 1
- 4 MIN 3 UTA 1
- 5 MIN 4 UTA 3
- 6 MIN 3 UTA 2
- 7 MIN 1 UTA 2
- 8 MIN 0 UTA 1
- 9 MIN 0 UTA 2
- 10 MIN 1 UTA 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.2, 54% to win. The Wild won by 2, a result we gave 46%. The final margin was 2.2 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wild win | 46.2% |
| Mammoth win | 53.8% |
| Middle 50%: Wild by 2 to Mammoth by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Wild by 4 to Mammoth by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Wild by 4 to Mammoth by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 21.5% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 19.6% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 12.9% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 10.3% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 27, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Wild win 61% of them, Mammoth 39%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wild by 3+ | 28.5% |
| Wild by 2 | 12.7% |
| Wild by 1 | 19.8% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 20.3% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 7.9% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wild | 44 | 3 | 3.04 | −0.04 |
 Mammoth | 43 | 1 | 3.08 | −2.08 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:22 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 18:06 | Roughing on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 19:50 | High sticking on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 16:49 | Holding on the Wild (Yakov Trenin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P2 14:21 | Holding on the Mammoth (Andrew Peeke): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P2 10:43 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P2 6:16 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P2 3:06 | Boarding on the Wild (Nico Sturm): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P2 2:13 | Abuse of officials on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 4 minutes on the power play | +10% MIN |
| P2 1:45 | Roughing on the Wild (Danila Yurov): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 12:57 | Joel Eriksson Ek’s slap shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance | +5% UTA | – |
| 2 | P2 12:43 | Ryan Hartman’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +5% UTA | – |
| 3 | P2 10:43 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 6:16 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 4:56 | Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +21% MIN | – |
| 6 | P2 2:13 | Abuse of officials on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% MIN | – |
| 7 | P2 1:45 | Roughing on the Wild (Danila Yurov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% UTA | – |
| 8 | P3 19:12 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wild 65% · Mammoth 35%
- Final margin
- Wild by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wild by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Wild 61% · Mammoth 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
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