2026-27 regular season · October 27, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Bruins at Hurricanes, Oct 27, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Bruins 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Bruins had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (P3, 9:41 left): Sebastian Aho scored on a backhand shot from 9 feet, worth 29 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Boston Bruins | 1 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Hurricanes | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Hurricanes lucky · −36 Bruins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bruins win 4, Hurricanes win 6.
- 1 BOS 5 CAR 2
- 2 BOS 4 CAR 2
- 3 BOS 2 CAR 1
- 4 BOS 4 CAR 3
- 5 BOS 3 CAR 4
- 6 BOS 1 CAR 2
- 7 BOS 0 CAR 2
- 8 BOS 3 CAR 6
- 9 BOS 2 CAR 6
- 10 BOS 2 CAR 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.8, 63% to win. The Hurricanes won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.2 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bruins win | 36.6% |
| Hurricanes win | 63.4% |
| Middle 50%: Bruins by 1 to Hurricanes by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Bruins by 3 to Hurricanes by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Bruins by 4 to Hurricanes by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 22.4% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 17.1% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 16.1% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 11.7% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 4 | 8.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 27, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Bruins win 36% of them, Hurricanes 64%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bruins by 3+ | 10.2% |
| Bruins by 2 | 6.0% |
| Bruins by 1 | 19.5% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 20.7% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 13.2% |
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 30.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bruins | 21 | 1 | 2.05 | −1.05 |
 Hurricanes | 46 | 2 | 3.38 | −1.38 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:59 | Slashing on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 13:06 | Hooking on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 8:27 | Holding on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 4:01 | Holding on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 19:15 | Tripping on the Bruins (Fraser Minten): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 0:36 | Tripping on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CAR |
| P2 0:12 | Tripping on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CAR |
| P3 4:41 | Interference on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BOS |
| P3 2:27 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BOS |
When it happened
Hurricanes’ chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:29 | Pavel Zacha scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 0:52 | Jackson Blake scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance | +17% CAR | – |
| 3 | P2 0:36 | Tripping on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CAR | – |
| 4 | P2 0:31 | Sebastian Aho hit the left post with a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 22% chance | +5% BOS | – |
| 5 | P2 0:12 | Tripping on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CAR | – |
| 6 | P3 9:41 | Sebastian Aho scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 11% chance | +29% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 4:41 | Interference on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% BOS | – |
| 8 | P3 2:27 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bruins 27% · Hurricanes 73%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bruins 36% · Hurricanes 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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