2026-27 regular season · October 29, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blackhawks at Red Wings, Oct 29, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Blackhawks 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Red Wings win 8 of 10. The Blackhawks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:51 left): Lucas Raymond scored on a snap shot from 37 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Chicago Blackhawks | 1 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Red Wings about even · −19 Blackhawks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blackhawks win 2, Red Wings win 8.
- 1 CHI 4 DET 2
- 2 CHI 3 DET 2
- 3 CHI 3 DET 4
- 4 CHI 3 DET 4
- 5 CHI 0 DET 2
- 6 CHI 1 DET 4
- 7 CHI 0 DET 3
- 8 CHI 0 DET 4
- 9 CHI 0 DET 5
- 10 CHI 1 DET 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Red Wings by 0.9, 64% to win. The Red Wings won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.1 goals from ours; 32% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blackhawks win | 35.7% |
| Red Wings win | 64.3% |
| Middle 50%: Blackhawks by 1 to Red Wings by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blackhawks by 3 to Red Wings by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blackhawks by 4 to Red Wings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 1 | 16.8% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 16.4% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 2 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 4 | 8.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 29, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.3 replays ended
Blackhawks win 19% of them, Red Wings 81%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 3.0% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 12.9% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 13.8% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.7% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 57.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blackhawks | 32 | 1 | 1.57 | −0.57 |
 Red Wings | 50 | 3 | 4.20 | −1.20 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:09 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 18:00 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Kevin Korchinski): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 15:43 | Cross checking on the Blackhawks (Frank Nazar): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P3 19:22 | High sticking on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% DET |
| P3 11:17 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CHI |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:01 | Connor Bedard scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% CHI | – |
| 2 | P1 2:03 | Viktor Arvidsson’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 35% chance | +7% CHI | – |
| 3 | P2 12:29 | Viktor Arvidsson scored on a tip from 28 feetShooting · 4% chance | +20% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 9:29 | Emmitt Finnie’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +4% CHI | – |
| 5 | P3 19:22 | High sticking on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% DET | – |
| 6 | P3 18:51 | Lucas Raymond scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance | +23% DET | – |
| 7 | P3 11:17 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CHI | – |
| 8 | P3 4:34 | Viktor Arvidsson scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance | +7% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blackhawks 3% · Red Wings 97%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Blackhawks 19% · Red Wings 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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