2026-27 season · in progress
Buffalo Sabres, 2026-27: game by game
The Sabres are 0–1–0 (0 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 0.7 points. Luck cost them 0.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Sabres win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 3–6 | 52% | −52 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Sabres win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Blackhawks |  Sabres by 0.8 | 64% |
| Week 2 · Oct 6 | vs Wild | Sabres by 0.1 | 51% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | vs Stars | Sabres by 0.1 | 52% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | vs Mammoth | Sabres even | 50% |
| Week 3 · Oct 12 | vs Panthers | Sabres by 0.2 | 53% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Canadiens |  Canadiens by 0.2 | 46% |
| Week 3 · Oct 15 | at Maple Leafs | Sabres by 0.2 | 54% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | at Canadiens | Canadiens by 0.2 | 46% |
| Week 4 · Oct 21 | vs Flyers | Sabres by 0.6 | 60% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | at Capitals |  Capitals by 0.3 | 45% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Sabres’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +0.4 |
| Empty-net goals | −0.6 |
| Goaltending | −2.2 |