luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Sabres, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Sabres 4–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 39 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P1, 8:17 left): Alexis Lafrenière scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

New York Rangers 4
Buffalo Sabres 0

October 9, 2025 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +50 Rangers lucky · −50 Sabres

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 5, Sabres win 5.

  1. 1 NYR 4 BUF 0
  2. 2 NYR 4 BUF 1
  3. 3 NYR 2 BUF 0
  4. 4 NYR 3 BUF 2
  5. 5 NYR 2 BUF 1
  6. 6 NYR 1 BUF 2
  7. 7 NYR 3 BUF 4
  8. 8 NYR 1 BUF 3
  9. 9 NYR 2 BUF 5
  10. 10 NYR 1 BUF 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Rangers win 50% of them, Sabres 50%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+17.0%
Rangers by 29.6%
Rangers by 123.1%
Sabres by 123.2%
Sabres by 210.6%
Sabres by 3+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 4, without the luck Rangers by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers4532.20+0.80
Sabres5202.39−2.39

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:46 Tripping on the Sabres (Mason Geertsen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P2 19:32 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 13:38 Interference on the Rangers (Urho Vaakanainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P2 2:02 Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Rangers (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BUF
P3 19:56 High sticking on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P3 13:06 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BUF
P3 10:36 Hooking on the Sabres (Justin Danforth): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:17 Alexis Lafrenière scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance +15% NYR –
2 P2 19:32 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
3 P2 13:38 Interference on the Rangers (Urho Vaakanainen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
4 P2 2:02 Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Rangers (Will Borgen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% BUF –
5 P3 19:56 High sticking on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYR –
6 P3 13:06 Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% BUF –
7 P3 10:36 Hooking on the Sabres (Justin Danforth): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYR –
8 P3 5:14 Carson Soucy scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 5% chance +10% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 72% · Sabres 28%

Final margin
Rangers by 4
Luck in goals
3.0 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 50% · Sabres 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 1 2025-26 games · Rangers · Sabres

More from week 1, 2025-26

Every game of week 1, 2025-26