luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 12, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Rangers, Oct 12, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Rangers 1–0, but the replays lean toward the Rangers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:13 left): Anthony Beauvillier scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 1
New York Rangers 0

October 12, 2025 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +62 Capitals very lucky · −62 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 4, Rangers win 6.

  1. 1 WSH 3 NYR 0
  2. 2 WSH 2 NYR 0
  3. 3 WSH 3 NYR 2
  4. 4 WSH 2 NYR 1
  5. 5 WSH 0 NYR 1
  6. 6 WSH 4 NYR 5
  7. 7 WSH 2 NYR 4
  8. 8 WSH 2 NYR 5
  9. 9 WSH 1 NYR 4
  10. 10 WSH 1 NYR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Capitals win 38% of them, Rangers 62%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+9.3%
Capitals by 27.4%
Capitals by 121.3%
Rangers by 123.8%
Rangers by 213.5%
Rangers by 3+24.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Capitals by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals3211.77−0.77
Rangers5302.81−2.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 4:42 Tripping on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P2 2:18 Hooking on the Capitals (Anthony Beauvillier): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P3 16:25 Tripping on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 9:00 J.T. Miller’s snap shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +4% WSH –
2 P2 6:13 Anthony Beauvillier scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 3% chance +22% WSH –
3 P2 4:42 Tripping on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYR –
4 P2 3:55 Mika Zibanejad’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +6% WSH –
5 P2 2:44 J.T. Miller’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +4% WSH –
6 P2 2:18 Hooking on the Capitals (Anthony Beauvillier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYR –
7 P3 16:25 Tripping on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% WSH –
8 P3 6:14 Alexis Lafrenière’s snap shot from 29 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance +4% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 65% · Rangers 35%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 38% · Rangers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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