2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Predators, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Blue Jackets 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (P2, 0:18 left): A Blue Jackets goal came off the board on review (goal interference), worth 25 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 1 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Predators lucky · −45 Blue Jackets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 5, Predators win 5.
- 1 CBJ 3 NSH 0
- 2 CBJ 4 NSH 1
- 3 CBJ 2 NSH 0
- 4 CBJ 1 NSH 0
- 5 CBJ 4 NSH 3
- 6 CBJ 1 NSH 2
- 7 CBJ 2 NSH 3
- 8 CBJ 1 NSH 3
- 9 CBJ 2 NSH 5
- 10 CBJ 3 NSH 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 45% of them, Predators 55%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 15.0% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 9.7% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 20.9% |
| Predators by 1 | 22.9% |
| Predators by 2 | 11.0% |
| Predators by 3+ | 20.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 51 | 1 | 2.57 | −1.57 |
 Predators | 45 | 2 | 2.64 | −0.64 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:17 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Boone Jenner): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 11:12 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Sean Monahan): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P2 9:33 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Isac Lundeström): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P2 3:05 | Tripping on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CBJ |
| P2 0:18 | A Blue Jackets goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +25% NSH |
| P3 17:53 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Zachary Aston-Reese): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:15 | Michael Bunting scored on a slap shot from 42 feetShooting · 4% chance | +15% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 3:59 | Dmitri Voronkov scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P2 11:12 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Sean Monahan): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 9:33 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Isac Lundeström): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 5 | P2 3:05 | Tripping on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CBJ | – |
| 6 | P2 0:18 | A Blue Jackets goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals | +25% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 17:53 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Zachary Aston-Reese): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 17:19 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 7% chance | +25% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 49% · Predators 51%
- Final margin
- Predators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Predators by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 45% · Predators 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 1, 2025-26
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