luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Predators, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Predators 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Mammoth won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final (OT)

Utah Mammoth 3
Nashville Predators 2

October 11, 2025 · Bridgestone Arena

Luck index +58 Mammoth lucky · −58 Predators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 4, Predators win 6.

  1. 1 UTA 5 NSH 2
  2. 2 UTA 2 NSH 0
  3. 3 UTA 4 NSH 3
  4. 4 UTA 4 NSH 3
  5. 5 UTA 2 NSH 3
  6. 6 UTA 2 NSH 3
  7. 7 UTA 1 NSH 3
  8. 8 UTA 2 NSH 5
  9. 9 UTA 0 NSH 3
  10. 10 UTA 2 NSH 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Mammoth win 42% of them, Predators 58%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+13.6%
Mammoth by 28.2%
Mammoth by 119.8%
Predators by 121.2%
Predators by 210.8%
Predators by 3+26.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Predators by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth2922.45−0.45
Predators3923.04−1.04

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:54 Interference on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 4 minutes on the power play +8% UTA
P1 1:31 Tripping on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 16:34 High sticking on the Mammoth (Dmitri Simashev): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P2 11:30 Slashing on the Mammoth (Kevin Stenlund): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P2 9:15 Tripping on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P2 0:47 Tripping on the Mammoth (Nick Schmaltz): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 15:06 Hooking on the Predators (Adam Wilsby): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA
P3 11:23 High sticking on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH

When it happened

Predators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Predators were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:39 Logan Cooley scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% UTA –
2 P1 12:37 Filip Forsberg scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% NSH –
3 P1 6:54 Interference on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% UTA –
4 P1 4:04 Nick Schmaltz’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% NSH –
5 P2 6:47 Erik Haula scored on a deflected shot from 3 feetShooting · 18% chance +18% NSH –
6 P3 8:23 Jack McBain scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 32% chance +23% UTA –
7 P3 5:44 Jonathan Marchessault’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +8% UTA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Mammoth won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 39% · Predators 61%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 42% · Predators 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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