Bruins lucky 3 
Capitals unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 27% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Oct 7, 2025 – Oct 12, 2025
NHL week 1: who deserved to win
8 of 38 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Bruins beat the Capitals 3–1 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 38 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Bruins lucky 3 Capitals unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 27% of replays 
Stars lucky 5 
Avalanche unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Stars win 33% of replays 
Flames lucky 4 
Oilers unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Flames win 33% of replays 
Canadiens lucky 5 
Red Wings unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 34% of replays 
Wild lucky 5 
Blues unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Wild win 35% of replays 
Kings lucky 6 
Golden Knights unlucky 5 Replays favor loser · Kings win 38% of replays Capitals lucky 1 
Rangers unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Capitals win 38% of replays Canadiens unlucky 2 
Maple Leafs lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 38% of replays 
Blue Jackets 7 Wild 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 40% of replays 
Mammoth 3 
Predators 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 42% of replays Blues 4 Flames 2 Coin flip · Blues win 46% of replays Kings 2 
Jets 3 Coin flip · Jets win 46% of replays Mammoth 1 Avalanche 2 Coin flip · Avalanche win 47% of replays Avalanche 4 Kings 1 Coin flip · Avalanche win 49% of replays Rangers 4 
Sabres 0 Coin flip · Rangers win 50% of replays Golden Knights 1 
Kraken 2 Coin flip · Kraken win 52% of replays Golden Knights 4 
Sharks 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 54% of replays 
Penguins 3 Rangers 0 Coin flip · Penguins win 55% of replays Blue Jackets 1 Predators 2 Coin flip · Predators win 55% of replays 
Ducks 1 Kraken 3 Coin flip · Kraken win 55% of replays 
Islanders 3 Penguins 4 Coin flip · Penguins win 55% of replays 
Senators 5 
Lightning 4 Coin flip · Senators win 57% of replays Flames 1 
Canucks 5 Coin flip · Canucks win 59% of replays Stars 5 Jets 4 Coin flip · Stars win 60% of replays Maple Leafs 3 Red Wings 6 Coin flip · Red Wings win 60% of replays Rangers 6 Penguins 1 Replays agree · Rangers win 61% of replays Sabres 1 Bruins 3 Replays agree · Bruins win 67% of replays Capitals 4 Islanders 2 Replays agree · Capitals win 67% of replays Senators 2 
Panthers 6 Replays agree · Panthers win 68% of replays 
Devils 5 Lightning 3 Replays agree · Devils win 68% of replays 
Flyers 1 Panthers 2 Replays agree · Panthers win 69% of replays Ducks 7 Sharks 6 Replays agree · Ducks win 71% of replays 
Blackhawks 2 Panthers 3 Replays agree · Panthers win 71% of replays Flyers 3 
Hurricanes 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 72% of replays Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 2 Replays agree · Canadiens win 73% of replays Devils 3 Hurricanes 6 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 74% of replays Blackhawks 3 Bruins 4 Replays agree · Bruins win 75% of replays Canucks 1 Oilers 3 Replays agree · Oilers win 85% of replays Week 1 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruins | W 3–1 @ Capitals Oct 8, 2025 | 27% | +73 |
| 2 | Stars | W 5–4 SO @ Avalanche Oct 11, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 3 | Flames | W 4–3 SO @ Oilers Oct 8, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 4 | Canadiens | W 5–1 @ Red Wings Oct 9, 2025 | 34% | +66 |
| 5 | Wild | W 5–0 @ Blues Oct 9, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 6 | Kings | W 6–5 SO @ Golden Knights Oct 8, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 7 | Capitals | W 1–0 @ Rangers Oct 12, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 8 | Maple Leafs | W 5–2 vs Canadiens Oct 8, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 9 | Blue Jackets | W 7–4 @ Wild Oct 11, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 10 | Mammoth | W 3–2 OT @ Predators Oct 11, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 11 | Blues | W 4–2 @ Flames Oct 11, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 12 | Jets | W 3–2 vs Kings Oct 11, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 13 | Avalanche | W 2–1 vs Mammoth Oct 9, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 14 | Avalanche | W 4–1 @ Kings Oct 7, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 15 | Rangers | W 4–0 @ Sabres Oct 9, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 16 | Kraken | W 2–1 OT vs Golden Knights Oct 11, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 17 | Golden Knights | W 4–3 OT @ Sharks Oct 9, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 18 | Penguins | W 3–0 @ Rangers Oct 7, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 19 | Predators | W 2–1 vs Blue Jackets Oct 9, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 20 | Kraken | W 3–1 vs Ducks Oct 9, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 21 | Penguins | W 4–3 vs Islanders Oct 9, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 22 | Senators | W 5–4 @ Lightning Oct 9, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 23 | Canucks | W 5–1 vs Flames Oct 9, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 24 | Stars | W 5–4 @ Jets Oct 9, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 25 | Red Wings | W 6–3 vs Maple Leafs Oct 11, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 26 | Rangers | W 6–1 @ Penguins Oct 11, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 27 | Bruins | W 3–1 vs Sabres Oct 11, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 28 | Capitals | W 4–2 @ Islanders Oct 11, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 29 | Panthers | W 6–2 vs Senators Oct 11, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 30 | Devils | W 5–3 @ Lightning Oct 11, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 31 | Panthers | W 2–1 vs Flyers Oct 9, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 32 | Ducks | W 7–6 OT @ Sharks Oct 11, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 33 | Panthers | W 3–2 vs Blackhawks Oct 7, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 34 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 OT vs Flyers Oct 11, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 35 | Canadiens | W 3–2 @ Blackhawks Oct 11, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 36 | Hurricanes | W 6–3 vs Devils Oct 9, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 37 | Bruins | W 4–3 OT vs Blackhawks Oct 9, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 38 | Oilers | W 3–1 vs Canucks Oct 11, 2025 | 85% | +15 |
| 39 | Canucks | L 1–3 @ Oilers Oct 11, 2025 | 15% | −15 |
| 40 | Blackhawks | L 3–4 OT @ Bruins Oct 9, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 41 | Devils | L 3–6 @ Hurricanes Oct 9, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 42 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 vs Canadiens Oct 11, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 43 | Flyers | L 3–4 OT @ Hurricanes Oct 11, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 44 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 @ Panthers Oct 7, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 45 | Sharks | L 6–7 OT vs Ducks Oct 11, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 46 | Flyers | L 1–2 @ Panthers Oct 9, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 47 | Lightning | L 3–5 vs Devils Oct 11, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 48 | Senators | L 2–6 @ Panthers Oct 11, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 49 | Islanders | L 2–4 vs Capitals Oct 11, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 50 | Sabres | L 1–3 @ Bruins Oct 11, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 51 | Penguins | L 1–6 vs Rangers Oct 11, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 52 | Jets | L 4–5 vs Stars Oct 9, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 53 | Maple Leafs | L 3–6 @ Red Wings Oct 11, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 54 | Flames | L 1–5 @ Canucks Oct 9, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 55 | Lightning | L 4–5 vs Senators Oct 9, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 56 | Islanders | L 3–4 @ Penguins Oct 9, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 57 | Ducks | L 1–3 @ Kraken Oct 9, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 58 | Blue Jackets | L 1–2 @ Predators Oct 9, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 59 | Rangers | L 0–3 vs Penguins Oct 7, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 60 | Sharks | L 3–4 OT vs Golden Knights Oct 9, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 61 | Golden Knights | L 1–2 OT @ Kraken Oct 11, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 62 | Sabres | L 0–4 vs Rangers Oct 9, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 63 | Kings | L 1–4 vs Avalanche Oct 7, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 64 | Mammoth | L 1–2 @ Avalanche Oct 9, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 65 | Kings | L 2–3 @ Jets Oct 11, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 66 | Flames | L 2–4 vs Blues Oct 11, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 67 | Predators | L 2–3 OT vs Mammoth Oct 11, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 68 | Wild | L 4–7 vs Blue Jackets Oct 11, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 69 | Canadiens | L 2–5 @ Maple Leafs Oct 8, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 70 | Rangers | L 0–1 vs Capitals Oct 12, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 71 | Golden Knights | L 5–6 SO vs Kings Oct 8, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 72 | Blues | L 0–5 vs Wild Oct 9, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 73 | Red Wings | L 1–5 vs Canadiens Oct 9, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 74 | Oilers | L 3–4 SO vs Flames Oct 8, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 75 | Avalanche | L 4–5 SO vs Stars Oct 11, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 76 | Capitals | L 1–3 vs Bruins Oct 8, 2025 | 73% | −73 |