luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Sharks, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Sharks 7–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Sharks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 48 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Ducks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (OT)

Anaheim Ducks 7
San Jose Sharks 6

October 11, 2025 · SAP Center at San Jose

Luck index +29 Ducks lucky · −29 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 7, Sharks win 3.

  1. 1 ANA 6 SJS 0
  2. 2 ANA 5 SJS 1
  3. 3 ANA 7 SJS 4
  4. 4 ANA 7 SJS 4
  5. 5 ANA 5 SJS 3
  6. 6 ANA 4 SJS 3
  7. 7 ANA 4 SJS 3
  8. 8 ANA 0 SJS 1
  9. 9 ANA 2 SJS 4
  10. 10 ANA 2 SJS 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Ducks win 71% of them, Sharks 29%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+42.6%
Ducks by 211.3%
Ducks by 116.7%
Sharks by 116.7%
Sharks by 25.6%
Sharks by 3+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck Ducks by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks6564.58+1.42
Sharks2962.25+3.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:32 Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 3:47 Holding on the Sharks (John Klingberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 17:24 Cross checking on the Sharks (Adam Gaudette): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 11:06 Hooking on the Ducks (Olen Zellweger): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P2 10:02 Delaying game puck over glass on the Ducks (Frank Vatrano): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P2 7:07 Delaying game face off violation on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 3:25 High sticking on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 1:53 Interference on the Sharks (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA

When it happened

Sharks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sharks were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:20 Tyler Toffoli scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% SJS –
2 P1 4:46 Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +14% ANA –
3 P2 14:39 Mario Ferraro scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% SJS –
4 P2 13:41 Alex Killorn scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 13% chance +17% ANA –
5 P2 9:26 John Klingberg scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 10% chance +19% SJS –
6 P3 14:26 Jeff Skinner scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance +13% SJS –
7 P3 0:51 Chris Kreider scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 15% chance +37% ANA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Ducks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 82% · Sharks 18%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 71% · Sharks 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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