luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Oilers, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Canucks 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Oilers win 9 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P2, 7:39 left): Noah Philp scored on a snap shot from 20 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final

Vancouver Canucks 1
Edmonton Oilers 3

October 11, 2025 · Rogers Place

Luck index +15 Oilers about even · −15 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 1, Oilers win 9.

  1. 1 VAN 4 EDM 3
  2. 2 VAN 3 EDM 4
  3. 3 VAN 3 EDM 5
  4. 4 VAN 3 EDM 6
  5. 5 VAN 2 EDM 5
  6. 6 VAN 2 EDM 6
  7. 7 VAN 1 EDM 6
  8. 8 VAN 1 EDM 7
  9. 9 VAN 2 EDM 9
  10. 10 VAN 0 EDM 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Canucks win 15% of them, Oilers 85%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+2.3%
Canucks by 22.5%
Canucks by 110.1%
Oilers by 19.4%
Oilers by 28.3%
Oilers by 3+67.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Oilers by 2, without the luck Oilers by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks2612.04−1.04
Oilers5325.01−3.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:36 Holding on the Canucks (Derek Forbort): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 2:53 High sticking on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 1:20 Tripping on the Oilers (Trent Frederic): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 10:05 Tripping on the Canucks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 10:53 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 6:00 Tripping on the Canucks (Filip Chytil): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 3:05 Cross checking on the Oilers (Noah Philp): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 2:26 David Tomasek’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 34% chance +6% VAN –
2 P2 19:06 Brock Boeser missed the net with a deflected shot from 3 feetShooting · 32% chance +6% EDM –
3 P2 7:39 Noah Philp scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance +19% EDM –
4 P2 0:51 Andrew Mangiapane scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 18% chance +12% EDM –
5 P3 19:13 Brock Boeser scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% VAN –
6 P3 6:00 Tripping on the Canucks (Filip Chytil): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% EDM –
7 P3 3:05 Cross checking on the Oilers (Noah Philp): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% VAN –
8 P3 2:07 Brock Boeser missed the net with a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 23% chance +10% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 7% · Oilers 93%

Final margin
Oilers by 2
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 15% · Oilers 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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