luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Canucks, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Flames 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canucks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P1, 5:07 left): Kiefer Sherwood scored on a wrist shot from 44 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final

Calgary Flames 1
Vancouver Canucks 5

October 9, 2025 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +41 Canucks lucky · −41 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 4, Canucks win 6.

  1. 1 CGY 5 VAN 2
  2. 2 CGY 3 VAN 1
  3. 3 CGY 2 VAN 1
  4. 4 CGY 5 VAN 4
  5. 5 CGY 0 VAN 1
  6. 6 CGY 3 VAN 4
  7. 7 CGY 1 VAN 2
  8. 8 CGY 1 VAN 3
  9. 9 CGY 1 VAN 4
  10. 10 CGY 0 VAN 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Flames win 41% of them, Canucks 59%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+10.2%
Flames by 28.6%
Flames by 121.9%
Canucks by 125.1%
Canucks by 212.7%
Canucks by 3+21.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 4, without the luck Canucks by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames3612.12−1.12
Canucks3852.19+2.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:35 Too many men on the ice on the Canucks (VAN): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 4:10 Hooking on the Flames (Jake Bean): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 19:40 Boarding on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 15:27 Boarding on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 8:59 High sticking on the Flames (Brayden Pachal): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 2:08 Holding the stick on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 19:25 Tripping on the Canucks (Filip Chytil): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 14:43 Hooking on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play +2% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:07 Kiefer Sherwood scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 2% chance +17% VAN –
2 P2 15:27 Boarding on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
3 P2 8:59 High sticking on the Flames (Brayden Pachal): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VAN –
4 P2 2:08 Holding the stick on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
5 P2 0:29 Yegor Sharangovich’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +6% VAN –
6 P3 19:37 Connor Zary’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +4% VAN –
7 P3 19:25 Tripping on the Canucks (Filip Chytil): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
8 P3 17:06 Filip Chytil scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 30% · Canucks 70%

Final margin
Canucks by 4
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Flames 41% · Canucks 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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