2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blues at Flames, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Blues beat the Flames 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blues win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Blues.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 5:35 left): Robert Thomas scored on a wrist shot from 18 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Blues. The biggest single swing (P3, 8:53 left): Jake Neighbours scored on a tip from 13 feet.
Final
 St. Louis Blues | 4 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Blues lucky · −54 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blues win 5, Flames win 5.
- 1 STL 6 CGY 2
- 2 STL 4 CGY 1
- 3 STL 8 CGY 6
- 4 STL 2 CGY 1
- 5 STL 3 CGY 2
- 6 STL 2 CGY 3
- 7 STL 4 CGY 5
- 8 STL 3 CGY 5
- 9 STL 1 CGY 4
- 10 STL 2 CGY 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blues win 46% of them, Flames 54%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blues by 3+ | 18.1% |
| Blues by 2 | 9.1% |
| Blues by 1 | 18.8% |
| Flames by 1 | 20.2% |
| Flames by 2 | 11.4% |
| Flames by 3+ | 22.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blues | 35 | 4 | 2.77 | +1.23 |
 Flames | 49 | 2 | 3.12 | −1.12 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:31 | Holding on the Blues (Nick Bjugstad): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 15:06 | Tripping on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P1 9:32 | Tripping on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P1 6:01 | Tripping on the Blues (Philip Broberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 2:47 | Tripping on the Blues (Pavel Buchnevich): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 16:10 | Slashing on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 14:22 | Holding on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 6:26 | Holding on the Flames (Mikael Backlund): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% STL |
| P3 18:25 | Tripping on the Blues (Pius Suter): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CGY |
| P3 15:10 | Hooking on the Flames (Nazem Kadri): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% STL |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 5:11 | Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 4% chance | +17% CGY | – |
| 2 | P2 7:19 | Jake Neighbours scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% STL | – |
| 3 | P2 5:35 | The game turned hereRobert Thomas scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 10% chance | +21% STL | – |
| 4 | P2 5:03 | Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance | +22% CGY | – |
| 5 | P3 15:10 | Hooking on the Flames (Nazem Kadri): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +7% STL | – |
| 6 | P3 13:50 | Jake Neighbours’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +7% CGY | – |
| 7 | P3 8:53 | Jake Neighbours scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +31% STL | – |
| 8 | P3 6:27 | Pius Suter scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +11% STL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blues 61% · Flames 39%
- Final margin
- Blues by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Blues
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Blues 46% · Flames 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 1, 2025-26
- Stars at Avalanche Oct 11, 2025 · DAL 5–4 SO · replay 33% for the winner
- Flames at Oilers Oct 8, 2025 · CGY 4–3 SO · replay 33% for the winner
- Wild at Blues Oct 9, 2025 · MIN 5–0 · replay 35% for the winner
- Kings at Golden Knights Oct 8, 2025 · LAK 6–5 SO · replay 38% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Wild Oct 11, 2025 · CBJ 7–4 · replay 40% for the winner
- Mammoth at Predators Oct 11, 2025 · UTA 3–2 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Kings at Jets Oct 11, 2025 · WPG 3–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Mammoth at Avalanche Oct 9, 2025 · COL 2–1 · replay 47% for the winner
- Avalanche at Kings Oct 7, 2025 · COL 4–1 · replay 49% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Kraken Oct 11, 2025 · SEA 2–1 OT · replay 52% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Sharks Oct 9, 2025 · VGK 4–3 OT · replay 54% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Predators Oct 9, 2025 · NSH 2–1 · replay 55% for the winner