luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Avalanche, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Mammoth 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Avalanche win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 34 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

The biggest swing (P3, 17:08 left): Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 33 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Utah Mammoth 1
Colorado Avalanche 2

October 9, 2025 · Ball Arena

Luck index +53 Avalanche lucky · −53 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 5, Avalanche win 5.

  1. 1 UTA 5 COL 1
  2. 2 UTA 5 COL 2
  3. 3 UTA 4 COL 2
  4. 4 UTA 2 COL 1
  5. 5 UTA 3 COL 2
  6. 6 UTA 2 COL 3
  7. 7 UTA 1 COL 2
  8. 8 UTA 1 COL 3
  9. 9 UTA 1 COL 3
  10. 10 UTA 0 COL 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Mammoth win 53% of them, Avalanche 47%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+19.6%
Mammoth by 210.3%
Mammoth by 122.9%
Avalanche by 123.4%
Avalanche by 210.2%
Avalanche by 3+13.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Avalanche by 1, without the luck Avalanche by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth4812.57−1.57
Avalanche4122.03−0.03

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 1:51 Interference on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 13:23 Tripping on the Mammoth (Brandon Tanev): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 9:20 Tripping on the Mammoth (Nate Schmidt): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 2:16 Slashing on the Avalanche (Parker Kelly): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P3 18:07 Interference on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P3 15:09 Interference on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA
P3 8:20 Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:03 Ross Colton scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% COL –
2 P2 2:12 Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 45 feetShooting · 7% chance +22% UTA –
3 P3 18:07 Interference on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% COL –
4 P3 17:08 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 7% chance +25% COL –
5 P3 15:09 Interference on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% UTA –
6 P3 8:20 Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% COL –
7 P3 4:30 Jack McBain’s wrist shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +5% COL –
8 P3 2:53 Lawson Crouse’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +5% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 44% · Avalanche 56%

Final margin
Avalanche by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 53% · Avalanche 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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