2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Wild, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Blue Jackets beat the Wild 7–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The biggest swing (P2, 1:12 left): Kirill Marchenko scored on a wrist shot from 12 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 7 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Blue Jackets lucky · −60 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 4, Wild win 6.
- 1 CBJ 5 MIN 2
- 2 CBJ 4 MIN 2
- 3 CBJ 6 MIN 5
- 4 CBJ 5 MIN 4
- 5 CBJ 2 MIN 3
- 6 CBJ 1 MIN 2
- 7 CBJ 3 MIN 5
- 8 CBJ 1 MIN 4
- 9 CBJ 5 MIN 9
- 10 CBJ 1 MIN 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 40% of them, Wild 60%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 8.1% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 17.9% |
| Wild by 1 | 18.9% |
| Wild by 2 | 10.7% |
| Wild by 3+ | 30.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 43 | 6 | 2.81 | +3.19 |
 Wild | 69 | 4 | 4.13 | −0.13 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:55 | Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Dmitri Voronkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 9:10 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blue Jackets (Miles Wood): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 14:15 | Holding on the Blue Jackets (Erik Gudbranson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P2 13:42 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blue Jackets (CBJ): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 12:13 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blue Jackets (Erik Gudbranson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 7:23 | Holding the stick on the Wild (Jake Middleton): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
| P3 18:25 | Tripping on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CBJ |
| P3 17:47 | Hooking on the Wild (Jake Middleton): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CBJ |
| P3 13:47 | Closing hand on puck on the Blue Jackets (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% MIN |
| P3 10:49 | Too many men on the ice on the Blue Jackets (CBJ): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% MIN |
| P3 5:56 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blue Jackets (Dmitri Voronkov): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% MIN |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:31 | Miles Wood scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P2 19:53 | Kirill Marchenko scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 6% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P2 13:42 | Matt Boldy scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 43% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blue Jackets (CBJ): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +13% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 11:36 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 6% chance | +20% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 7:23 | Holding the stick on the Wild (Jake Middleton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CBJ | – |
| 6 | P2 1:12 | Kirill Marchenko scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 15% chance | +21% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 18:49 | Zach Werenski scored on a slap shot from 40 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 8 | P3 16:59 | Kirill Marchenko scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 9% chance | +6% CBJ | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 56% · Wild 44%
- Final margin
- Blue Jackets by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for the Blue Jackets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blue Jackets by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 40% · Wild 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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