luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Jets, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Jets 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Stars win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Stars.

The biggest swing (P1, 4:36 left): Nils Lundkvist scored on a wrist shot from 30 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Stars.

Final

Dallas Stars 5
Winnipeg Jets 4

October 9, 2025 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +40 Stars lucky · −40 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 7 WPG 1
  2. 2 DAL 5 WPG 1
  3. 3 DAL 6 WPG 3
  4. 4 DAL 7 WPG 5
  5. 5 DAL 4 WPG 3
  6. 6 DAL 3 WPG 2
  7. 7 DAL 0 WPG 1
  8. 8 DAL 4 WPG 5
  9. 9 DAL 5 WPG 7
  10. 10 DAL 2 WPG 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Stars win 60% of them, Jets 40%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+29.7%
Stars by 210.6%
Stars by 119.5%
Jets by 119.5%
Jets by 27.8%
Jets by 3+13.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars4853.50+1.50
Jets3642.67+1.33

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:12 Roughing on the Stars (Roope Hintz): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 19:14 Hooking on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 15:59 Holding on the Stars (Ilya Lyubushkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 11:37 Too many men on the ice on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 4:43 Slashing on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DAL
P2 1:04 Interference on the Jets (Neal Pionk): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DAL
P2 0:47 Tripping on the Jets (Alex Iafallo): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DAL
P3 10:33 Hooking on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play 0% DAL
P3 2:56 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:45 Mikko Rantanen scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% DAL –
2 P1 13:41 Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% WPG –
3 P1 4:36 Nils Lundkvist scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance +17% DAL –
4 P2 0:47 Tripping on the Jets (Alex Iafallo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% DAL –
5 P3 18:59 Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% DAL –
6 P3 18:25 Tyler Seguin scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +6% DAL –
7 P3 3:03 Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance +8% WPG –
8 P3 2:56 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% WPG –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 84% · Jets 16%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Stars 60% · Jets 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 1 2025-26 games · Stars · Jets

More from week 1, 2025-26

Every game of week 1, 2025-26