luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 11, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Hurricanes, Oct 11, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Flyers 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Flyers had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (OT, 0:54 left): A Flyers goal came off the board on review (goal interference), worth 50 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4

October 11, 2025 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +28 Hurricanes lucky · −28 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 7 CAR 4
  2. 2 PHI 6 CAR 4
  3. 3 PHI 5 CAR 4
  4. 4 PHI 2 CAR 3
  5. 5 PHI 4 CAR 5
  6. 6 PHI 3 CAR 5
  7. 7 PHI 4 CAR 7
  8. 8 PHI 5 CAR 9
  9. 9 PHI 3 CAR 8
  10. 10 PHI 0 CAR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 28% of them, Hurricanes 72%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+8.0%
Flyers by 24.8%
Flyers by 114.7%
Hurricanes by 116.3%
Hurricanes by 210.8%
Hurricanes by 3+45.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3532.73+0.27
Hurricanes6234.90−1.90

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:51 Interference on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 8:52 Tripping on the Flyers (Egor Zamula): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 3:46 Slashing on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 0:31 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 6:35 Interference on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 17:49 Roughing on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P3 8:18 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
OT 0:54 A Flyers goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +50% CAR

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 0:22 Owen Tippett scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 19% chance +15% PHI –
2 P2 16:14 Logan Stankoven scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 21% chance +16% CAR –
3 P2 13:42 Bobby Brink scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance +19% PHI –
4 P2 10:53 Taylor Hall scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance +19% CAR –
5 P2 1:30 Jordan Staal scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 10% chance +22% CAR –
6 P3 4:00 Travis Sanheim scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 7% chance +36% PHI –
7 OT The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% CAR –
8 OT 0:54 A Flyers goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals +50% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 21% · Hurricanes 79%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 28% · Hurricanes 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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