luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 9, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Panthers, Oct 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Flyers 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 17:41 left): Brad Marchand scored on a wrist shot from 51 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 1
Florida Panthers 2

October 9, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +31 Panthers lucky · −31 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 3, Panthers win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 3 FLA 0
  2. 2 PHI 3 FLA 2
  3. 3 PHI 2 FLA 1
  4. 4 PHI 2 FLA 3
  5. 5 PHI 3 FLA 4
  6. 6 PHI 0 FLA 2
  7. 7 PHI 1 FLA 3
  8. 8 PHI 1 FLA 4
  9. 9 PHI 1 FLA 4
  10. 10 PHI 0 FLA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 31% of them, Panthers 69%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+5.5%
Flyers by 26.6%
Flyers by 119.2%
Panthers by 121.8%
Panthers by 212.8%
Panthers by 3+34.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Panthers by 1, without the luck Panthers by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3211.58−0.58
Panthers5022.93−0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:16 Tripping on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 19:00 Slashing on the Panthers (Evan Rodrigues): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 12:06 Tripping on the Panthers (Luke Kunin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 3:05 Tripping on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 16:23 Interference on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 14:03 Hooking on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P3 1:16 Interference on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play +6% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:04 Sam Reinhart’s slap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% PHI –
2 P2 16:23 Interference on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% FLA –
3 P2 14:31 Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% FLA –
4 P2 2:12 Noah Cates scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance +20% PHI –
5 P3 17:41 Brad Marchand scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 1% chance +26% FLA –
6 P3 16:05 Noah Cates missed the net with a bat shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% FLA –
7 P3 2:27 Noah Cates’s backhand shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance +4% FLA –
8 P3 1:16 Interference on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 15% · Panthers 85%

Final margin
Panthers by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 31% · Panthers 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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