2026-27 season · in progress
Colorado Avalanche, 2026-27: game by game
The Avalanche are 1–0–0 (2 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 1.4 points. Luck added 0.6: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 0–0; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Avalanche win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs Kings | W 8–4 | 53% | +47 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Avalanche win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Blues |  Avalanche by 0.9 | 65% |
| Week 2 · Oct 7 | at Jets | Avalanche by 0.4 | 57% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | at Flames | Avalanche by 0.9 | 64% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | vs Maple Leafs | Avalanche by 1.2 | 69% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Stars | Avalanche by 0.2 | 54% |
| Week 3 · Oct 14 | vs Stars | Avalanche by 0.7 | 61% |
| Week 3 · Oct 16 | vs Penguins | Avalanche by 0.5 | 58% |
| Week 4 · Oct 19 | at Flyers | Avalanche by 0.7 | 62% |
| Week 4 · Oct 20 | at Devils | Avalanche by 0.2 | 53% |
| Week 4 · Oct 23 | vs Lightning | Avalanche by 0.7 | 62% |
| Week 4 · Oct 25 | at Predators | Avalanche by 0.7 | 62% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Avalanche’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +3.9 |
| Goaltending | −0.8 |