2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Avalanche, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Avalanche beat the Red Wings 4–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 10:14 left): Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 6 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
Final
 Detroit Red Wings | 0 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Avalanche | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Avalanche lucky · −34 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 3, Avalanche win 7.
- 1 DET 5 COL 2
- 2 DET 2 COL 1
- 3 DET 3 COL 2
- 4 DET 1 COL 2
- 5 DET 2 COL 3
- 6 DET 5 COL 7
- 7 DET 1 COL 3
- 8 DET 3 COL 6
- 9 DET 0 COL 4
- 10 DET 2 COL 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.9, 64% to win. The Avalanche won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 17% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Red Wings win | 35.6% |
| Avalanche win | 64.4% |
| Middle 50%: Red Wings by 1 to Avalanche by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Red Wings by 3 to Avalanche by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Red Wings by 4 to Avalanche by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 16.8% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 16.5% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 4 | 8.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Red Wings win 34% of them, Avalanche 66%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 8.0% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 6.5% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 19.3% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 20.2% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 11.8% |
| Avalanche by 3+ | 34.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 35 | 0 | 2.05 | −2.05 |
 Avalanche | 38 | 4 | 3.15 | +0.85 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 19:09 | Elbowing on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P2 15:39 | Holding on the Red Wings (William Wallinder): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P2 13:23 | Slashing on the Avalanche (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 12:01 | Interference on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P2 8:59 | Interference on the Red Wings (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P2 4:01 | Interference on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P3 10:26 | Roughing on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% COL |
| P3 6:55 | Roughing on the Avalanche (Noah Juulsen): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% DET |
When it happened
Avalanche’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 2:53 | Artturi Lehkonen’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance | +5% DET | – |
| 2 | P2 19:09 | Elbowing on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% COL | – |
| 3 | P2 15:39 | Holding on the Red Wings (William Wallinder): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 13:23 | Slashing on the Avalanche (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% DET | – |
| 5 | P2 12:01 | Interference on the Red Wings (Justin Faulk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 6 | P2 10:14 | Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 32% chance | +14% COL | – |
| 7 | P2 8:59 | Interference on the Red Wings (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% COL | – |
| 8 | P2 7:30 | Nathan MacKinnon scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 9% chance | +13% COL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 17% · Avalanche 83%
- Final margin
- Avalanche by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Avalanche
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Avalanche by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 34% · Avalanche 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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