2026-27 regular season · October 19, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Flyers, Oct 19, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flyers beat the Avalanche 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 12:19 left): Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 16 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Flyers.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 2 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Flyers lucky · −38 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 4, Flyers win 6.
- 1 COL 7 PHI 4
- 2 COL 4 PHI 2
- 3 COL 3 PHI 2
- 4 COL 1 PHI 0
- 5 COL 1 PHI 2
- 6 COL 2 PHI 3
- 7 COL 1 PHI 3
- 8 COL 0 PHI 3
- 9 COL 3 PHI 6
- 10 COL 0 PHI 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.8, 63% to win. The Flyers won by 1, a result we gave 37%. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Avalanche win | 63.0% |
| Flyers win | 37.0% |
| Middle 50%: Avalanche by 3 to Flyers by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Avalanche by 4 to Flyers by 3 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Avalanche by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 21.9% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 17.6% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 15.8% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 12.4% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 4 | 8.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 19, 4:25 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Avalanche win 38% of them, Flyers 62%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 8.4% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 7.7% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 21.6% |
| Flyers by 1 | 22.5% |
| Flyers by 2 | 12.4% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 27.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 42 | 2 | 2.35 | −0.35 |
 Flyers | 32 | 3 | 2.76 | +0.24 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:53 | Too many men on the ice on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 12:19 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PHI |
| P2 4:11 | Roughing on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% COL |
| P3 19:18 | High sticking on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:19 | Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 14% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Avalanche (COL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +17% PHI | – |
| 2 | P2 7:37 | Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance | +14% PHI | – |
| 3 | P2 2:08 | Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance | +14% COL | – |
| 4 | P3 19:18 | High sticking on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 5 | P3 18:37 | Nazem Kadri’s wrist shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +5% PHI | – |
| 6 | P3 13:26 | Noel Acciari scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% PHI | – |
| 7 | P3 5:20 | T.J. Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 5% chance | +9% COL | – |
| 8 | P3 1:36 | Nathan MacKinnon missed the net with a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 11% chance | +5% PHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 28% · Flyers 72%
- Final margin
- Flyers by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flyers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 38% · Flyers 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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