luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kings at Islanders, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kings beat the Islanders 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Kings.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Kings won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Kings.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Kings 3
New York Islanders 2

October 22, 2026 · UBS Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Islanders by 0.1

Luck index +51 Kings lucky · −51 Islanders

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kings win 5, Islanders win 5.

  1. 1 LAK 4 NYI 0
  2. 2 LAK 7 NYI 4
  3. 3 LAK 3 NYI 1
  4. 4 LAK 3 NYI 2
  5. 5 LAK 4 NYI 3
  6. 6 LAK 6 NYI 7
  7. 7 LAK 6 NYI 7
  8. 8 LAK 1 NYI 4
  9. 9 LAK 4 NYI 7
  10. 10 LAK 2 NYI 7

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Islanders by 0.1, 51% to win. The Kings won by 1, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 1.1 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Kings win49.1%
Islanders win50.9%
Middle 50%: Kings by 2 to Islanders by 250%
Middle 90%: Kings by 4 to Islanders by 490%
Middle 95%: Kings by 4 to Islanders by 595%
Exactly Islanders by 121.0%
Exactly Kings by 120.2%
Exactly Islanders by 312.0%
Exactly Kings by 311.2%
Exactly Kings by 210.1%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 11:45 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kings win 49% of them, Islanders 51%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kings by 3+20.9%
Kings by 29.0%
Kings by 119.1%
Islanders by 118.9%
Islanders by 29.6%
Islanders by 3+22.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Kings by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kings4423.65−1.65
Islanders5523.69−1.69

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:10 Holding on the Kings (Scott Laughton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P1 3:11 Hooking on the Islanders (Bo Horvat): 2 minutes on the power play +3% LAK
P1 2:29 Slashing on the Kings (Mats Zuccarello): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P1 1:49 Hooking on the Islanders (Tony DeAngelo): 2 minutes on the power play +3% LAK
P2 7:28 Tripping on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Kings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:09 Artemi Panarin scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% LAK –
2 P1 3:23 Artemi Panarin scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 22% chance +12% LAK –
3 P2 5:54 Victor Eklund scored on a slap shot from 42 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% NYI –
4 P3 12:54 Matthew Schaefer scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 6% chance +28% NYI –
5 P3 9:07 Samuel Helenius’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +7% NYI –
6 P3 0:59 Emil Heineman’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +10% LAK –
7 P3 0:57 Victor Eklund’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 20% chanceVictor Eklund missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 21% chance +18% LAK –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Kings won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% LAK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kings 49% · Islanders 51%

Final margin
Kings by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Kings 49% · Islanders 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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