2025-26 season · final
Colorado Avalanche, 2025-26: game by game
The Avalanche went 55–16–11 (121 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 117.0 points. Luck added 4.0: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 14–15; in overtime 3–5, in the shootout 4–6.
Playoffs: 8–5.
Every game
How often the Avalanche win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | @ Kings | W 4–1 | 49% | +51 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 2–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Stars | L 4–5 | 67% | −67 | SO |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ Sabres | W 3–1 | 63% | +37 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 4–1 | 68% | +32 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 4–1 | 79% | +21 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Mammoth | L 3–4 | 49% | −49 | OT |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | L 4–5 | 72% | −72 | SO |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 2–3 | 69% | −69 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Devils | L 3–4 | 60% | −60 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Devils | W 8–4 | 61% | +39 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Sharks | L 2–3 | 74% | −74 | OT |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Lightning | W 3–2 | 76% | +24 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Oilers | W 9–1 | 73% | +27 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 5–4 | 39% | +61 | OT |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Ducks | W 4–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 6–3 | 61% | +39 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 4–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Rangers | W 6–3 | 74% | +26 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Predators | W 3–0 | 50% | +51 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 1–0 | 53% | +47 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Sharks | W 6–0 | 75% | +25 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Wild | L 2–3 | 46% | −46 | SO |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Canadiens | W 7–2 | 75% | +25 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Canucks | W 3–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @ Islanders | L 3–6 | 39% | −39 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Rangers | W 3–2 | 63% | +37 | OT |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 3–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Predators | L 3–4 | 49% | −49 | SO |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs Panthers | W 6–2 | 76% | +24 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Predators | W 4–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 5–3 | 51% | +49 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Jets | W 3–2 | 77% | +23 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Wild | W 5–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 1–0 | 60% | +40 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 6–5 | 56% | +44 | SO |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Kings | W 5–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Blues | W 6–1 | 74% | +26 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | W 5–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Panthers | L 1–2 | 55% | −55 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 2–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Senators | W 8–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 4–0 | 49% | +51 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | L 3–4 | 66% | −66 | OT |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vs Predators | L 3–7 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 5–2 | 70% | +30 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 1–2 | 83% | −83 | SO |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vs Flyers | L 3–7 | 51% | −51 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 4–1 | 51% | +49 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Senators | L 2–5 | 37% | −37 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 3–7 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 5–0 | 64% | +36 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 0–2 | 45% | −45 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 4–2 | 73% | +27 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Mammoth | W 4–2 | 47% | +53 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Wild | L 2–5 | 43% | −43 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Blackhawks | W 3–1 | 65% | +35 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | @ Kings | W 4–2 | 75% | +25 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Ducks | W 5–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @ Stars | W 5–4 | 43% | +57 | SO |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs Wild | W 3–2 | 74% | +26 | SO |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Oilers | L 3–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 5–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ Jets | L 1–3 | 68% | −68 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 2–7 | 69% | −69 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Stars | L 1–2 | 64% | −64 | SO |
| Mar 20, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 4–1 | 80% | +20 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ Capitals | W 3–2 | 33% | +67 | OT |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 6–2 | 30% | +70 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @ Jets | W 3–2 | 74% | +26 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Jets | L 2–4 | 48% | −48 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Flames | W 9–2 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 1, 2026 | vs Canucks | L 6–8 | 53% | −53 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Stars | W 2–0 | 44% | +56 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Blues | L 2–3 | 32% | −32 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Blues | W 3–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Flames | W 3–1 | 78% | +22 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 2–3 | 52% | −52 | OT |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @ Oilers | W 2–1 | 67% | +33 | SO |
| Apr 14, 2026 | @ Flames | W 3–1 | 64% | +36 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 2–0 | 81% | +19 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Kings | W 2–1 | 64% | +36 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vs Kings | W 2–1 | 75% | +25 | OT |
| Apr 24, 2026 | @ Kings | W 4–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @ Kings | W 5–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| May 4, 2026 | vs Wild | W 9–6 | 61% | +39 | |
| May 6, 2026 | vs Wild | W 5–2 | 46% | +54 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @ Wild | L 1–5 | 45% | −45 | |
| May 12, 2026 | @ Wild | W 5–2 | 66% | +34 | |
| May 14, 2026 | vs Wild | W 4–3 | 66% | +34 | OT |
| May 21, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 2–4 | 72% | −72 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | L 1–3 | 48% | −48 | |
| May 25, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 3–5 | 57% | −57 | |
| May 27, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | L 1–2 | 28% | −28 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Avalanche’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +20.3 |
| Shooting | +0.8 |
| Overtime | −1.9 |
| Shootout | −2.0 |
| Empty-net goals | −3.4 |