luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 1, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Sharks, Oct 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Panthers 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The biggest swing (OT): the Sharks won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final (OT)

Florida Panthers 3
San Jose Sharks 4

October 1, 2026 · SAP Center at San Jose

Luck index +64 Sharks very lucky · −64 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Sharks win 4.

  1. 1 FLA 6 SJS 0
  2. 2 FLA 5 SJS 1
  3. 3 FLA 5 SJS 2
  4. 4 FLA 4 SJS 1
  5. 5 FLA 3 SJS 2
  6. 6 FLA 3 SJS 2
  7. 7 FLA 2 SJS 3
  8. 8 FLA 3 SJS 4
  9. 9 FLA 4 SJS 6
  10. 10 FLA 0 SJS 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 64% of them, Sharks 36%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+36.4%
Panthers by 210.6%
Panthers by 117.3%
Sharks by 118.5%
Sharks by 27.2%
Sharks by 3+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 1, without the luck Panthers by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers4933.86−0.86
Sharks4032.47+0.53

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:25 Cross checking on the Sharks (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 0:58 Interference on the Panthers (Seth Jones): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 18:05 High sticking double minor on the Sharks (Kiefer Sherwood): 4 minutes on the power play +8% FLA
P2 12:53 Slashing on the Sharks (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play +3% FLA
P2 10:10 Hooking on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P2 7:27 Roughing on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SJS
P2 6:26 Interference on the Sharks (Luca Cagnoni): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P2 4:16 Cross checking on the Sharks (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P3 0:18 Roughing on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play +11% SJS

When it happened

Sharks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sharks were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:40 Mason Marchment scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +17% SJS –
2 P2 18:05 High sticking double minor on the Sharks (Kiefer Sherwood): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% FLA –
3 P2 14:08 Will Smith scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% SJS –
4 P3 14:59 Eetu Luostarinen scored on a tip from 29 feetShooting · 4% chance +14% FLA –
5 P3 14:42 Matthew Tkachuk scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance +25% FLA –
6 P3 3:30 Sam Bennett’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +11% SJS –
7 P3 0:18 Roughing on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +11% SJS –
8 OT The Sharks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 73% · Sharks 27%

Final margin
Sharks by 1
Luck in goals
2.0 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 64% · Sharks 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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