luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · September 30, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Flyers, Sep 30, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Flyers 7–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Penguins win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:34 left): Nick Robertson scored on a tip from 16 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Philadelphia Flyers 0

September 30, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +20 Penguins about even · −20 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 8, Flyers win 2.

  1. 1 PIT 7 PHI 1
  2. 2 PIT 6 PHI 1
  3. 3 PIT 5 PHI 1
  4. 4 PIT 6 PHI 2
  5. 5 PIT 5 PHI 2
  6. 6 PIT 3 PHI 0
  7. 7 PIT 4 PHI 2
  8. 8 PIT 3 PHI 2
  9. 9 PIT 2 PHI 3
  10. 10 PIT 2 PHI 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Penguins win 80% of them, Flyers 20%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+57.9%
Penguins by 29.9%
Penguins by 112.6%
Flyers by 113.3%
Flyers by 23.1%
Flyers by 3+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 7, without the luck Penguins by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins5374.36+2.64
Flyers3401.61−1.61

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:18 Holding on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 16:37 Cross checking on the Flyers (Porter Martone): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P2 7:23 Boarding on the Penguins (Nick Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P2 0:18 Roughing on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT
P3 15:34 Interference on the Penguins (Declan Carlile): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P3 9:35 Interference on the Penguins (Connor Dewar): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P3 4:33 Roughing on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:25 Blake Lizotte’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +4% PHI –
2 P1 12:34 Nick Robertson scored on a tip from 16 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% PIT –
3 P1 9:18 Holding on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
4 P1 4:16 Ville Koivunen scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% PIT –
5 P2 16:39 Filip Hallander’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +3% PHI –
6 P2 16:37 Cross checking on the Flyers (Porter Martone): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% PIT –
7 P2 14:57 Evgeni Malkin scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 14% chance +8% PIT –
8 P2 12:34 Hendrix Lapierre scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 10% chance +4% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 98% · Flyers 2%

Final margin
Penguins by 7
Luck in goals
3.2 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 80% · Flyers 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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