luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Flames, Oct 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Flames 6–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 10:18 left): Vince Dunn scored on a slap shot from 66 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Seattle Kraken 6
Calgary Flames 1

October 1, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +35 Kraken lucky · −35 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 7, Flames win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 11 CGY 5
  2. 2 SEA 6 CGY 2
  3. 3 SEA 5 CGY 2
  4. 4 SEA 4 CGY 1
  5. 5 SEA 3 CGY 1
  6. 6 SEA 4 CGY 3
  7. 7 SEA 3 CGY 2
  8. 8 SEA 2 CGY 3
  9. 9 SEA 2 CGY 3
  10. 10 SEA 0 CGY 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kraken win 65% of them, Flames 35%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+36.5%
Kraken by 210.9%
Kraken by 118.1%
Flames by 119.2%
Flames by 26.5%
Flames by 3+8.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 5, without the luck Kraken by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken4663.61+2.39
Flames4212.41−1.41

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:56 Holding on the Flames (Matvei Gridin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 7:22 Cross checking on the Kraken (Josh Mahura): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P1 0:00 Tripping on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P2 15:28 Holding on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P2 11:33 Tripping on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P2 3:27 Cross checking on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SEA

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:17 Mikael Backlund’s wrist shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +2% SEA –
2 P1 10:56 Holding on the Flames (Matvei Gridin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
3 P1 10:50 Jordan Eberle scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% SEA –
4 P1 10:18 Vince Dunn scored on a slap shot from 66 feetShooting · 2% chance +15% SEA –
5 P1 7:51 Matvei Gridin missed the net with a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 17% chance +3% SEA –
6 P1 7:22 Cross checking on the Kraken (Josh Mahura): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% CGY –
7 P1 0:30 Frederick Gaudreau scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 6% chance +10% SEA –
8 P2 12:23 Simon Nemec’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +2% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 91% · Flames 9%

Final margin
Kraken by 5
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 65% · Flames 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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