luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Mammoth, Oct 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Blackhawks 6–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 3:19 left): Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 31 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Chicago Blackhawks 0
Utah Mammoth 6

October 1, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +23 Mammoth about even · −23 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 2, Mammoth win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 4 UTA 2
  2. 2 CHI 2 UTA 1
  3. 3 CHI 3 UTA 4
  4. 4 CHI 0 UTA 1
  5. 5 CHI 0 UTA 2
  6. 6 CHI 3 UTA 6
  7. 7 CHI 3 UTA 6
  8. 8 CHI 1 UTA 5
  9. 9 CHI 0 UTA 5
  10. 10 CHI 0 UTA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Blackhawks win 23% of them, Mammoth 77%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+4.2%
Blackhawks by 23.6%
Blackhawks by 115.3%
Mammoth by 118.0%
Mammoth by 212.8%
Mammoth by 3+46.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 6, without the luck Mammoth by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks3101.56−1.56
Mammoth5463.57+2.43

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 4:07 Holding on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 10:13 High sticking on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +1% UTA
P2 6:38 Cross checking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CHI
P2 5:06 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power play 0% UTA
P2 0:07 High sticking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CHI
P3 13:14 High sticking on the Mammoth (Andrew Peeke): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CHI

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:51 Logan Cooley missed the net with a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 11% chance +2% CHI –
2 P1 10:13 Clayton Keller missed the net with a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance +2% CHI –
3 P1 4:07 Holding on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% UTA –
4 P1 4:05 Dylan Guenther missed the net with a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 10% chance +2% CHI –
5 P1 3:19 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 15% chance +15% UTA –
6 P1 2:39 Michael Carcone scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 8% chance +13% UTA –
7 P2 10:13 Nick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chanceHigh sticking on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% UTA –
8 P2 6:54 Anders Lee scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +2% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 3% · Mammoth 97%

Final margin
Mammoth by 6
Luck in goals
3.0 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 23% · Mammoth 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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