All 138 FBS teams · 2025–2026
Every FBS team’s luck and expected wins
2026 so far: luck has added the most wins to South Florida (+1.6) and cost Georgia Tech the most (−1.9). All 138 FBS teams below, conference by conference.
Record and replay wins (expected wins: the wins each team’s play was worth, game by game) for 2026, and luck in wins for each season since 2025, left to right: up, luck added wins; down, luck cost them. Same scale for every team.
Big TenACCBig 12SECAmericanSun BeltMACConference USAMountain WestPac-12Independent
Big Ten
Iowa 4–0 · 2.9+1.1 
UCLA 4–0 · 3.3+0.7 
Nebraska 4–0 · 3.4+0.6 
Minnesota 3–1 · 2.4+0.6 
Oregon 3–1 · 2.5+0.5 
USC 4–1 · 3.7+0.3 
Northwestern 2–1 · 1.7+0.3 
Penn State 3–1 · 2.7+0.3 
Indiana 4–0 · 3.8+0.2 
Washington 3–1 · 2.9+0.1 
Wisconsin 3–1 · 2.9+0.1 
Michigan State 2–2 · 2.00.0 
Michigan 3–1 · 3.2−0.2 
Purdue 1–3 · 1.6−0.6 
Ohio State 3–1 · 3.7−0.7 
Maryland 2–2 · 2.7−0.7 
Illinois 2–2 · 2.7−0.7 
Rutgers 1–3 · 2.6−1.6
ACC
Clemson 3–1 · 2.1+0.9 
Wake Forest 3–1 · 2.1+0.9 
Duke 4–0 · 3.2+0.8 
Virginia Tech 4–0 · 3.2+0.8 
Pittsburgh 4–0 · 3.4+0.6 
California 2–2 · 1.5+0.5 
Stanford 2–2 · 1.6+0.4 
Boston College 2–2 · 1.6+0.4 
NC State 2–2 · 1.8+0.2 
Miami 4–0 · 3.8+0.2 
Virginia 3–1 · 3.00.0 
North Carolina 2–1 · 2.00.0 
Florida State 2–2 · 2.1−0.1 
SMU 3–1 · 3.3−0.3 
Louisville 2–2 · 2.7−0.7 
Syracuse 1–2 · 1.9−0.9 
Georgia Tech 1–3 · 2.9−1.9
Big 12
Texas Tech 4–0 · 3.0+1.0 
Cincinnati 4–0 · 3.2+0.8 
West Virginia 3–1 · 2.4+0.6 
Arizona State 2–1 · 1.6+0.4 
Colorado 2–2 · 1.7+0.3 
Arizona 3–1 · 2.8+0.2 
BYU 3–0 · 2.8+0.2 
Baylor 3–1 · 2.8+0.2 
Utah 4–0 · 3.9+0.1 
UCF 3–1 · 3.00.0 
Oklahoma State 3–1 · 3.00.0 
Kansas State 3–1 · 3.00.0 
Houston 3–1 · 3.1−0.1 
Iowa State 2–2 · 2.3−0.3 
TCU 2–2 · 2.4−0.4 
Kansas 1–2 · 2.0−1.0
SEC
Texas 4–0 · 3.1+0.9 
Ole Miss 3–1 · 2.3+0.7 
Tennessee 3–1 · 2.5+0.5 
Florida 4–0 · 3.7+0.3 
Texas A&M 2–2 · 1.7+0.3 
Mississippi State 4–0 · 3.7+0.3 
Alabama 4–0 · 3.7+0.3 
Auburn 3–1 · 2.7+0.3 
Vanderbilt 3–1 · 2.8+0.2 
Kentucky 3–1 · 2.8+0.2 
Missouri 3–1 · 2.8+0.2 
Georgia 4–0 · 3.9+0.1 
Arkansas 2–2 · 2.00.0 
South Carolina 2–2 · 2.3−0.3 
LSU 3–1 · 3.3−0.3 
Oklahoma 2–2 · 2.5−0.5
American
South Florida 4–0 · 2.4+1.6 
Florida Atlantic 3–1 · 1.9+1.1 
Tulsa 3–1 · 2.1+0.9 
UTSA 3–1 · 2.2+0.8 
Tulane 2–2 · 1.3+0.7 
UAB 2–2 · 1.4+0.6 
Army 2–1 · 1.7+0.3 
North Texas 2–2 · 2.2−0.2 
East Carolina 2–2 · 2.2−0.2 
Memphis 3–1 · 3.2−0.2 
Navy 1–2 · 1.8−0.8 
Rice 1–3 · 2.0−1.0 
Charlotte 0–4 · 1.1−1.1 
Temple 1–3 · 2.5−1.5
Sun Belt
Marshall 3–1 · 1.4+1.6 
South Alabama 2–2 · 1.2+0.8 
James Madison 4–0 · 3.2+0.8 
Georgia State 3–1 · 2.6+0.4 
App State 3–1 · 2.7+0.3 
Louisiana 3–1 · 2.7+0.3 
Arkansas State 2–2 · 1.7+0.3 
Troy 2–2 · 1.8+0.2 
Louisiana Tech 1–2 · 1.2−0.2 
Southern Miss 1–3 · 1.5−0.5 
Old Dominion 1–3 · 1.6−0.6 
Georgia Southern 1–3 · 1.7−0.7 
Coastal Carolina 1–3 · 1.9−0.9 
UL Monroe 0–4 · 1.2−1.2
MAC
Buffalo 2–2 · 1.5+0.5 
Western Michigan 2–2 · 1.5+0.5 
Massachusetts 4–0 · 3.7+0.3 
Ohio 2–2 · 1.7+0.3 
Central Michigan 2–2 · 1.7+0.3 
Kent State 2–2 · 1.9+0.1 
Ball State 1–3 · 1.00.0 
Sacramento State 1–4 · 1.3−0.3 
Eastern Michigan 2–3 · 2.3−0.3 
Toledo 3–1 · 3.4−0.4 
Akron 1–3 · 1.4−0.4 
Miami (OH) 2–2 · 2.4−0.4 
Bowling Green 0–4 · 0.6−0.6
