ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Stanford Cardinal: luck and expected wins

Stanford is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 33rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Stanford wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Hawai'i	W 37–27	97%	+3
Week 1	vs Miami	L 6–45	0%	0
Week 3	@ Duke	L 7–35	1%	−1
Week 4	vs Georgia Tech	W 34–27	59%	+41

Wk 1 +3 vs HAW

Wk 1 0 vs MIA

Wk 3 −1 @ DUKE

Wk 4 +41 vs GT

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Stanford win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Wake Forest	Wake Forest by 15.2	17%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Notre Dame	Notre Dame by 38.5	1%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Elon	Stanford by 19.6	89%
Week 8 · Oct 23	vs NC State	NC State by 8.4	30%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Louisville	Louisville by 20.0	11%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech by 13.7	21%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at California	California by 5.8	37%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs SMU	SMU by 12.9	22%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Stanford’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.05	−2.1
Kicks	−0.07	−3.2
Pre-snap flags	−0.09	+1.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Stanford takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	vs San José State	W 30–29	43%	+57
2025 Week 8	vs Florida State	W 20–13	54%	+46
2026 Week 4	vs Georgia Tech	W 34–27	59%	+41
2025 Week 3	vs Boston College	W 30–20	71%	+29
2025 Week 13	vs California	W 31–10	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Stanford would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ North Carolina	L 15–20	66%	−66
2025 Week 1	@ Hawai'i	L 20–23	25%	−25
2025 Week 10	vs Pittsburgh	L 20–35	17%	−17
2025 Week 7	@ SMU	L 10–34	8%	−8
2025 Week 14	vs Notre Dame	L 20–49	5%	−5

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	3.9	+0.1	2–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Hawai'i	L 20–23	25%	−25
Week 2	@ BYU	L 3–27	3%	−3
Week 3	vs Boston College	W 30–20	71%	+29
Week 4	@ Virginia	L 20–48	1%	−1
Week 5	vs San José State	W 30–29	43%	+57
Week 7	@ SMU	L 10–34	8%	−8
Week 8	vs Florida State	W 20–13	54%	+46
Week 9	@ Miami	L 7–42	0%	0
Week 10	vs Pittsburgh	L 20–35	17%	−17
Week 11	@ North Carolina	L 15–20	66%	−66
Week 13	vs California	W 31–10	96%	+4
Week 14	vs Notre Dame	L 20–49	5%	−5