luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · September 10, 2026–September 12, 2026

Week 2 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

10 upsets in Week 2 2026. The biggest: Oklahoma State beat Oregon 39–31 as 6% underdogs, and deserved it. 12 of 86 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: South Florida beat Army 28–24 in a game it wins 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 2 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 10 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Oklahoma State 39–31 vs Oregon 6% 96% Deserved
Georgia State 31–17 @ Kennesaw State 31% 62% Deserved
App State 27–24 @ East Carolina 34% 36% Lucky
Duke 31–27 @ Illinois 35% 25% Lucky
Michigan 17–10 vs Oklahoma 36% 48% Coin flip
Florida Atlantic 38–30 vs Navy 39% 85% Deserved
California 21–18 @ Syracuse 40% 19% Lucky
North Texas 44–6 vs UNLV 42% 99% Deserved
South Florida 28–24 @ Army 42% 38% Lucky
UTSA 31–26 @ Texas State 46% 24% Lucky

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 2 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 California W 21–18 @ Syracuse 19% +81
2 North Dakota State W 38–32 @ Air Force 19% +81
3 UTSA W 31–26 @ Texas State 24% +76
4 Duke W 31–27 @ Illinois 25% +75
5 Ohio W 29–27 vs Jacksonville State 27% +73
6 Texas Tech W 35–24 @ Oregon State 27% +73
7 Tulsa W 23–17 @ Sam Houston 27% +73
8 Texas W 24–23 vs Ohio State 32% +68
9 Tennessee W 45–24 @ Georgia Tech 33% +67
10 App State W 27–24 @ East Carolina 36% +65
11 South Florida W 28–24 @ Army 38% +62
12 Washington W 16–14 vs Utah State 41% +59
13 Wyoming W 21–13 vs Northern Colorado 42% +58
14 Marshall W 28–26 vs Middle Tennessee 43% +57
15 Hawai'i W 29–19 vs New Mexico State 44% +56
16 Texas A&M W 48–20 vs Arizona State 45% +55
17 Boston College W 28–21 vs Rutgers 45% +55
18 Michigan W 17–10 vs Oklahoma 48% +52
19 Boise State W 38–20 vs Memphis 50% +50
20 Penn State W 27–9 @ Temple 53% +47
21 Tulane W 28–24 vs South Alabama 56% +44
22 Pittsburgh W 12–7 vs UCF 58% +42
23 Georgia State W 31–17 @ Kennesaw State 62% +38
24 Liberty W 24–23 vs Gardner-Webb 63% +37
25 Clemson W 22–7 vs Georgia Southern 64% +36
26 Wake Forest W 38–36 @ Purdue 65% +35
27 Vanderbilt W 35–26 vs Delaware 74% +26
28 Iowa W 16–13 vs Iowa State 76% +24
29 Central Michigan W 13–10 vs Colgate 77% +23
30 San José State W 30–20 vs Cal Poly 77% +23
31 UAB W 26–20 vs UL Monroe 81% +19
32 BYU W 28–17 vs Arizona 82% +18
33 UCLA W 28–10 vs San Diego State 82% +18
34 Florida Atlantic W 38–30 vs Navy 85% +15
35 Maryland W 38–14 @ UConn 87% +13
36 Missouri W 38–21 @ Kansas 89% +11
37 Ball State W 41–17 vs Stony Brook 92% +8
38 Troy W 34–17 vs Alabama State 95% +5
39 Wisconsin W 36–9 vs Western Illinois 95% +5
40 Ole Miss W 41–9 vs Charlotte 95% +5
41 Florida International W 33–20 vs Buffalo 95% +5
42 Colorado State W 58–24 vs Southern Utah 96% +4
43 Oklahoma State W 39–31 vs Oregon 96% +4
44 Virginia Tech W 44–21 vs Old Dominion 96% +4
45 USC W 49–30 vs Louisiana 96% +4
46 Michigan State W 35–7 vs Eastern Michigan 97% +3
47 Virginia W 59–3 vs Norfolk State 97% +3
48 South Carolina W 45–9 vs Towson 97% +3
49 Colorado W 52–21 vs Weber State 97% +3
50 Cincinnati W 62–10 vs Western Carolina 98% +2
51 Coastal Carolina W 45–7 vs Fordham 99% +1
52 Kent State W 36–15 vs Wofford 99% +1
53 Utah W 43–10 vs Arkansas 99% +1
54 Auburn W 43–8 vs Southern Miss 99% +1
55 Mississippi State W 38–13 @ Minnesota 99% +1
56 West Virginia W 52–7 vs UT Martin 99% +1
57 Akron W 45–10 vs Robert Morris 99% +1
58 Georgia W 70–20 vs Western Kentucky 99% +1
59 Arkansas State W 52–7 vs West Georgia 99% +1
60 Alabama W 45–17 @ Kentucky 99% +1
61 North Texas W 44–6 vs UNLV 99% +1
62 Massachusetts W 37–10 vs Sacred Heart 100% 0
63 North Carolina W 35–3 vs East Tennessee State 100% 0
64 UTEP W 51–10 vs Texas Southern 100% 0
65 Fresno State W 49–3 vs Sacramento State 100% 0
66 Miami (OH) W 45–7 vs Holy Cross 100% 0
67 Louisville W 59–13 vs Villanova 100% 0
68 Missouri State W 48–14 vs Lindenwood 100% 0
69 Miami W 77–7 vs Florida A&M 100% 0
70 NC State W 73–0 vs Richmond 100% 0
71 Kansas State W 34–7 vs Washington State 100% 0
72 Indiana W 55–0 vs Howard 100% 0
73 James Madison W 87–3 vs Wagner 100% 0
74 Notre Dame W 52–0 vs Rice 100% 0
75 Toledo W 63–10 vs Central Connecticut 100% 0
76 SMU W 56–10 vs UC Davis 100% 0
77 New Mexico W 70–7 vs Mercyhurst 100% 0
78 Florida W 52–3 vs Campbell 100% 0
79 Western Michigan W 49–14 vs Monmouth 100% 0
80 Houston W 77–6 vs Southern 100% 0
81 Nebraska W 56–7 vs Bowling Green 100% 0
82 LSU W 45–14 vs Louisiana Tech 100% 0
83 TCU W 63–7 vs Grambling 100% 0
84 Baylor W 44–3 vs Prairie View A&M 100% 0
85 Washington State L 7–34 @ Kansas State 0% 0
86 Rice L 0–52 @ Notre Dame 0% 0
87 Bowling Green L 7–56 @ Nebraska 0% 0
88 Louisiana Tech L 14–45 @ LSU 0% 0
89 Sacramento State L 3–49 @ Fresno State 0% 0
90 UNLV L 6–44 @ North Texas 1% −1
91 Kentucky L 17–45 vs Alabama 1% −1
92 Western Kentucky L 20–70 @ Georgia 1% −1
93 Minnesota L 13–38 vs Mississippi State 1% −1
94 Southern Miss L 8–43 @ Auburn 1% −1
95 Arkansas L 10–43 @ Utah 1% −1
96 Eastern Michigan L 7–35 @ Michigan State 3% −3
97 Louisiana L 30–49 @ USC 4% −4
98 Old Dominion L 21–44 @ Virginia Tech 4% −4
99 Oregon L 31–39 @ Oklahoma State 4% −4
100 Buffalo L 20–33 @ Florida International 5% −5
101 Charlotte L 9–41 @ Ole Miss 5% −5
102 Kansas L 21–38 vs Missouri 11% −11
103 UConn L 14–38 vs Maryland 13% −13
104 Navy L 30–38 @ Florida Atlantic 15% −15
105 San Diego State L 10–28 @ UCLA 18% −18
106 Arizona L 17–28 @ BYU 18% −18
107 UL Monroe L 20–26 @ UAB 19% −19
108 Iowa State L 13–16 @ Iowa 24% −24
109 Delaware L 26–35 @ Vanderbilt 26% −26
110 Purdue L 36–38 vs Wake Forest 35% −35
111 Georgia Southern L 7–22 @ Clemson 36% −36
112 Kennesaw State L 17–31 vs Georgia State 38% −38
113 UCF L 7–12 @ Pittsburgh 42% −42
114 South Alabama L 24–28 @ Tulane 44% −44
115 Temple L 9–27 vs Penn State 47% −47
116 Memphis L 20–38 @ Boise State 50% −50
117 Oklahoma L 10–17 @ Michigan 52% −52
118 Nevada L 7–20 vs Montana State 54% −54
119 Rutgers L 21–28 @ Boston College 55% −55
120 Arizona State L 20–48 @ Texas A&M 55% −55
121 New Mexico State L 19–29 @ Hawai'i 56% −56
122 Middle Tennessee L 26–28 @ Marshall 57% −57
123 Utah State L 14–16 @ Washington 59% −59
124 Army L 24–28 vs South Florida 62% −62
125 East Carolina L 24–27 vs App State 65% −65
126 Georgia Tech L 24–45 vs Tennessee 67% −67
127 Ohio State L 23–24 @ Texas 68% −68
128 Sam Houston L 17–23 vs Tulsa 73% −73
129 Oregon State L 24–35 vs Texas Tech 73% −73
130 Jacksonville State L 27–29 @ Ohio 73% −73
131 Illinois L 27–31 vs Duke 75% −75
132 Texas State L 26–31 vs UTSA 76% −76
133 Air Force L 32–38 vs North Dakota State 81% −81
134 Syracuse L 18–21 vs California 81% −81
135 Northern Illinois L 24–28 vs Illinois State 83% −83