American · 2026 season, in progress

North Texas Mean Green: luck and expected wins

North Texas is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost 0.2: the 51st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often North Texas wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Indiana	L 16–52	8%	−8
Week 2	vs UNLV	W 44–6	99%	+1
Week 3	@ Texas State	L 35–49	8%	−8
Week 4	vs Houston Christian	W 63–14	100%	0

Wk 1 −8 @ IU

Wk 2 +1 vs UNLV

Wk 3 −8 @ TXST

Wk 4 0 vs HCU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	North Texas win chance
Week 5 · Oct 1	at Tulsa	North Texas by 10.5	75%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Charlotte	North Texas by 32.3	98%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Navy	North Texas by 8.6	70%
Week 9 · Oct 29	vs Florida Atlantic	North Texas by 18.2	86%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Rice	North Texas by 23.9	92%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at UTSA	North Texas by 0.7	52%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Tulane	North Texas by 5.2	62%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs UAB	North Texas by 21.5	90%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in North Texas’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.06	+2.8
Kicks	+0.05	−2.4
3rd & 4th downs	+0.03	+8.1

Luckiest wins

Wins North Texas takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	vs Navy	W 31–17	48%	+52
2025 Week 4	@ Army	W 45–38	50%	+50
2025 Week 5	vs South Alabama	W 36–22	72%	+28
2025 Isleta New Mexico Bowl	vs San Diego State	W 49–47	78%	+22
2025 Week 2	@ Western Michigan	W 33–30	89%	+11

Unluckiest losses

Losses North Texas would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 15	@ Tulane	L 21–34	82%	−82
2026 Week 3	@ Texas State	L 35–49	8%	−8
2026 Week 1	@ Indiana	L 16–52	8%	−8
2025 Week 7	vs South Florida	L 36–63	7%	−7

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	11–2	10.3	+0.7	2–0	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Lamar	W 51–0	100%	0
Week 2	@ Western Michigan	W 33–30	89%	+11
Week 3	vs Washington State	W 59–10	99%	+1
Week 4	@ Army	W 45–38	50%	+50
Week 5	vs South Alabama	W 36–22	72%	+28
Week 7	vs South Florida	L 36–63	7%	−7
Week 8	vs UTSA	W 55–17	94%	+6
Week 9	@ Charlotte	W 54–20	98%	+2
Week 10	vs Navy	W 31–17	48%	+52
Week 12	@ UAB	W 53–24	92%	+8
Week 13	@ Rice	W 56–24	100%	0
Week 14	vs Temple	W 52–25	100%	0
Week 15	@ Tulane	L 21–34	82%	−82
Isleta New Mexico Bowl	vs San Diego State	W 49–47	78%	+22