luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · December 13, 2025–January 2, 2026

Bowl games 2025–26: upsets, and who deserved to win

12 upsets in Bowl games 2025–26. The biggest: East Carolina beat Pittsburgh 23–17 as 21% underdogs, and got lucky. 7 of 34 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Hawai'i beat California 35–31 in a game it wins 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Bowl games 2025–26 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 6 of 12 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
East Carolina 23–17 vs Pittsburgh · Go Bowling Military Bowl 21% 19% Lucky
Ohio 17–10 vs UNLV · Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl 34% 80% Deserved
TCU 30–27 vs USC · Valero Alamo Bowl 39% 34% Lucky
Old Dominion 24–10 vs South Florida · StaffDNA Cure Bowl 40% 63% Deserved
Virginia 13–7 vs Missouri · TaxSlayer Gator Bowl 40% 22% Lucky
Illinois 30–28 vs Tennessee · Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl 42% 36% Lucky
Western Kentucky 27–16 vs Southern Miss · New Orleans Bowl 42% 51% Coin flip
Iowa 34–27 vs Vanderbilt · ReliaQuest Bowl 42% 47% Coin flip
Wake Forest 43–29 vs Mississippi State · Duke's Mayo Bowl 42% 80% Deserved
Penn State 22–10 vs Clemson · Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl 44% 78% Deserved
Delaware 20–13 vs Louisiana · 68 Ventures Bowl 46% 74% Deserved
Washington State 34–21 vs Utah State · Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 46% 96% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Luck ranking, bowl games

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Hawai'i W 35–31 vs California 9% +91
2 East Carolina W 23–17 vs Pittsburgh 19% +81
3 Virginia W 13–7 vs Missouri 22% +78
4 TCU W 30–27 vs USC 34% +66
5 Illinois W 30–28 vs Tennessee 36% +64
6 Louisiana Tech W 23–14 vs Coastal Carolina 39% +61
7 Georgia Southern W 29–10 vs App State 40% +60
8 Duke W 42–39 vs Arizona State 44% +56
9 Iowa W 34–27 vs Vanderbilt 47% +53
10 Western Kentucky W 27–16 vs Southern Miss 51% +49
11 Houston W 38–35 vs LSU 60% +40
12 Old Dominion W 24–10 vs South Florida 63% +37
13 Jacksonville State W 17–13 vs Troy 65% +35
14 Arkansas State W 34–28 vs Missouri State 70% +30
15 Delaware W 20–13 vs Louisiana 74% +26
16 Fresno State W 18–3 vs Miami (OH) 76% +24
17 North Texas W 49–47 vs San Diego State 78% +22
18 Penn State W 22–10 vs Clemson 78% +22
19 Wake Forest W 43–29 vs Mississippi State 80% +20
20 Ohio W 17–10 vs UNLV 80% +20
21 Louisville W 27–22 vs Toledo 81% +19
22 BYU W 25–21 vs Georgia Tech 82% +18
23 SMU W 24–19 vs Arizona 84% +16
24 Northwestern W 34–7 vs Central Michigan 89% +11
25 Navy W 35–13 vs Cincinnati 91% +9
26 Texas W 41–27 vs Michigan 93% +7
27 Utah W 44–22 vs Nebraska 94% +6
28 UTSA W 57–20 vs Florida International 95% +5
29 Washington State W 34–21 vs Utah State 96% +4
30 Washington W 38–10 vs Boise State 97% +3
31 Army W 41–16 vs UConn 97% +3
32 NC State W 31–7 vs Memphis 98% +2
33 Texas State W 41–10 vs Rice 98% +2
34 Western Michigan W 41–6 vs Kennesaw State 99% +1
35 Kennesaw State L 6–41 vs Western Michigan 1% −1
36 Rice L 10–41 vs Texas State 2% −2
37 Memphis L 7–31 vs NC State 2% −2
38 UConn L 16–41 vs Army 3% −3
39 Boise State L 10–38 vs Washington 3% −3
40 Utah State L 21–34 vs Washington State 4% −4
41 Florida International L 20–57 vs UTSA 5% −5
42 Nebraska L 22–44 vs Utah 6% −6
43 Michigan L 27–41 vs Texas 7% −7
44 Cincinnati L 13–35 vs Navy 9% −9
45 Central Michigan L 7–34 vs Northwestern 11% −11
46 Arizona L 19–24 vs SMU 16% −16
47 Georgia Tech L 21–25 vs BYU 18% −18
48 Toledo L 22–27 vs Louisville 19% −19
49 UNLV L 10–17 vs Ohio 20% −20
50 Mississippi State L 29–43 vs Wake Forest 20% −20
51 Clemson L 10–22 vs Penn State 22% −22
52 San Diego State L 47–49 vs North Texas 22% −22
53 Miami (OH) L 3–18 vs Fresno State 24% −24
54 Louisiana L 13–20 vs Delaware 26% −26
55 Missouri State L 28–34 vs Arkansas State 30% −30
56 Troy L 13–17 vs Jacksonville State 35% −35
57 South Florida L 10–24 vs Old Dominion 37% −37
58 LSU L 35–38 vs Houston 40% −40
59 Southern Miss L 16–27 vs Western Kentucky 49% −49
60 Vanderbilt L 27–34 vs Iowa 53% −53
61 Arizona State L 39–42 vs Duke 56% −56
62 App State L 10–29 vs Georgia Southern 60% −60
63 Coastal Carolina L 14–23 vs Louisiana Tech 61% −61
64 Tennessee L 28–30 vs Illinois 64% −64
65 USC L 27–30 vs TCU 66% −66
66 Missouri L 7–13 vs Virginia 78% −78
67 Pittsburgh L 17–23 vs East Carolina 81% −81
68 California L 31–35 @ Hawai'i 91% −91