luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl · January 2, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 37 of the 43 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Arizona vs SMU, Trust & Will Holiday Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?

SMU beat Arizona 24–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff SMU was a 56% favorite.

Final

Arizona Wildcats 19
SMU Mustangs 24

January 2, 2026 · Snapdragon Stadium · Closing line: SMU −2.5

Luck index +16 SMU about even · −16 Arizona

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona wins 2, SMU wins 8.

  1. 1 ARIZ 30 SMU 17
  2. 2 ARIZ 20 SMU 17
  3. 3 ARIZ 21 SMU 24
  4. 4 ARIZ 24 SMU 30
  5. 5 ARIZ 28 SMU 38
  6. 6 ARIZ 14 SMU 27
  7. 7 ARIZ 14 SMU 31
  8. 8 ARIZ 6 SMU 27
  9. 9 ARIZ 7 SMU 33
  10. 10 ARIZ 7 SMU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona wins 16% of them, SMU 84%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona by 17+1.8%
Arizona by 9–163.4%
Arizona by 1–88.1%
Level after regulation3.3%
SMU by 1–818.8%
SMU by 9–1620.6%
SMU by 17+44.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to SMU: the final margin was SMU by 5, without the luck SMU by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Arizona 6 for 60 yards, SMU 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:01 Ineligible Downfield on Arizona, 5 yards +2% SMU +1.1 pts
Q1 8:48 Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARIZ +1.5 pts
Q1 4:26 Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards +4% SMU +2.6 pts
Q1 3:39 Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +0.8 pts
Q1 2:55 Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards +2% ARIZ +1.2 pts
Q1 2:48 Personal Foul on Arizona, 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% SMU +1.7 pts
Q2 0:13 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% SMU +0.5 pts
Q3 12:26 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SMU +1.9 pts
Q3 2:37 Pass Interference on SMU, 1 yard, wiping out the play +1% SMU +9.3 pts
Q3 1:10 Unnecessary Roughness on SMU, 14 yards +1% ARIZ +1.6 pts
Q4 3:45 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SMU +1.7 pts
Q4 2:43 Illegal Formation on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARIZ +0.3 pts

When it happened

SMU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while SMU was ahead in it, below while Arizona was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% SMU ARIZ: Punt
2 Q1 10:02 SMU converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% SMU SMU: Punt
3 Q1 9:04 SMU was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% ARIZ SMU: Punt
4 Q1 8:48 Offside on SMU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% ARIZ ARIZ: Punt
5 Q1 4:26 Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% SMU SMU: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:48 Personal Foul on Arizona, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% SMU SMU: Touchdown
7 Q2 13:40 SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% SMU SMU: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:33 Arizona converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% ARIZ –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona 24% · SMU 76%

Final margin
SMU by 5
Luck in points
0.6 for SMU
Luck-adjusted margin
SMU by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Arizona 16% · SMU 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 37 of the 43 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Arizona · SMU

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